Sunday 29 May 2016

EU REFERENDUM : THE ECONOMIC ARGUMENT FOR LEAVING.

Those who want us to stay within the European Union have been harking on about the potential damage to the UK economy that would be caused if we left. However, they seem to pay no heed whatsoever to the current malaise within the Union.




Unemployment in many EU countries is horrendously high. In Greece it is 24%, in Spain more than 20%; Portugal and Italy are suffering at around 12%, France comes in at 10% and the EU average is at about 9%.. Compare these Euro-land figures with the UK's unemployment rate of about 5% and one wonders what benefit their is for workers from remaining in the Union.





Countries within the EU suffer in other ways to. The Greek economy has been destroyed by its membership of the Eurozone and is currently negotiating, albeit extremely quietly while the UK referendum is the hot topic, for yet another 'bail out'. Billions of Euros have been poured into Greece in a madcap effort to prevent it from being forced to give up on the Euro, a scenario which terrifies the life out of Brussels. In the past, Ireland, Spain and others have also experienced very unpleasant consequences from membership of this club which most should never have joined in the first place.





Although the UK news hasn't said all that much about it, France is currently beset by strikes, with workers across the country protesting about proposed changes to the nation's labour laws. While French workers always seem to be on strike about something or other, it's hard to escape the conclusion that the current drive by the French government to bring French labour laws more into line with their EU counterparts is a significant part of the reason for this latest round of disruption. We also have heard nothing about the degree of compliance with the EU's 'Stability and Growth Pact', a set of fiscal rules designed to keep all member nations within a financial straightjacket.


Thankfully, the UK does not participate in the crazy arrangement and so has been free to deal with the worldwide financial difficulties of recent years in its way; theoretically, those EU countries which
are signatories to the Pact, which is almost all EU member nations', are not so fortunate. This is a major part of the reason why so many have suffered economic chaos in recent years. However, this chaos has also come even though the degree of compliance with the rules has been patchy, to say the least. It goes without saying that countries such as Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain have all experienced extreme difficulty in attempting to comply with the Pact, but it may not be so well known that many others have been in the same boat and required to introduce potentially damaging economic measures in order to achieve compliance. Even some of the largest economies have suffered, in particular Italy and France, although the French government has tended to do what it always does and ignore EU rules whenever it can. Nonetheless, Italy has had major problems and France is currently beset by strikes, all courtesy of the EU.


What we have heard much about is the problems that a vote to 'leave' the EU would cause for our international trade. We have been told that leaving the Union would result in hundreds of thousands or even millions of job being lost; this is utter bilge. Does anyone truly believe that European countries which already have economic problems of their own would abruptly stop trading with the UK ? While the EU is the UK's largest trading partner, the balance of trade is heavily weighted towards the rest of the EU - they make much more from us than we earn from them and are hardly likely to want to lose such a lucrative market. The real issue for the UK over trade is the extent to which the EU interferes with our ability to trade with non-EU countries. Much of our international trade is governed by the EU, which negotiates trade arrangements on behalf of all of its members. This means that every agreement has to satisfy the petty demands of every member country, hence agreements can take many years to put into place and every member country suffers. In the event of the UK leaving the Union, we would be free to negotiate our own 'one-to-one' trade deals with whomever we like, unencumbered by the restrictive practices of the EU. Of course, negotiating with the EU itself could be problematic though, as mentioned previously, the EU has a vested interest in maintaining good relations with the UK whatever the outcome of the referendum.


The scaremongers and doomsayers of the 'Remain' campaign would have us believe that leaving the EU would lead to economic catastrophe; they couldn't be more wrong. Staying within the EU will result in stagnation with ever more bureaucracy and red tape. Leaving the EU will free us to expand our horizons and embrace trade with the rest of the world, unencumbered by the need to seek agreement with 27 other nations before entering into any deals. The logic is utterly inescapable.



On 23rd June, whatever else you do, VOTE LEAVE.

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