PROJECT FEAR REARS ITS UGLY HEAD AGAIN.

And here we go again !

Today, both the UK Treasury and Bank of England have produced some new figures and predictions about the potential effects of Brexit. SURPRISE, SURPRISE ! Both august bodies have said that the UK will suffer potentially severe economic consequences from Brexit OVER THE NEXT 15 YEARS !

When, if ever, has either the Treasury or Bank of England got forecasts for the next couple of years right, let alone over a period of 15 years. Before the referendum of 2016 both organisations made dire predictions should the population be stupid enough to vote to leave the European Union - the pound would collapse, the stock market would tumble, house prices would crash, inflation and interest rates would soar, etc. etc. Which of these was proved right ? NONE !

Now, the Bank is repeating its warnings of 2 years ago - why should they be any more right today than they were in 2016 ? In arriving at their predictions, both the Bank and the Treasury have made various assumptions but how can they possibly make any valid assumptions about the world 15 years from now ? How, indeed, can they make any valid assumptions about the world 3 or 4 years from now ?

With political uncertainty rife across Europe and in the US, with China increasingly challenging the economic domination of the West and Russia ploughing its own furrow of militaristic posturing, we cannot, with any certainty, even know what the world will be like in 2019, let alone in 2034. The one thing that is very clear is that 'Project Fear' remains in full swing and that the people of the UK are being readied for either another referendum or a general election, which those of the liberal elite who run things expect to result in a reversal of the decision taken in 2016. 

Don't let the men, and women, in grey suits who appear to be so knowledgeable and certain, fool you. They have one aim in mind and they will do and say anything to achieve it. They want the UK to be a good little servile nation, do as it's told and decide to stay in the EU. 

Don't let it happen.

WHAT PRICE BREXIT NOW ?

It seems that the UK's hopes of leaving the European Union any time soon are receding into the distance. No one likes Mrs May's deal and her chances of gaining Parliamentary approval for it appear remote. Indeed, her chances of remaining in office are shrinking by the day. Nonetheless, she pushes on to what looks like certain disaster.

From the very beginning the government's approach to Brexit was weak. Rather than take the initiative and tell the EU what it wanted, it allowed the EU to dictate terms from the outset. Inevitably,  the resulting 'deal' is heavily weighted against the UK and in favour of the EU. Not only will the UK remain tied to the EU during a transition period, which could be extended, but even after this ends it could still be locked into the farcical arrangement of 'the backstop', in which the UK would be out of the EU but wholly subservient to it.

Today, Philip Hammond, Chancellor of the Exchequer, has been talking about yet more economic analyses which apparently show that the UK will be poorer as a result of Brexit; given the shockingly poor history of such analyses and projections over a period of many years, their reliability must be in question and yet still they are produced. Although Mr Hammond claims to be a supporter of Mrs May's deal, he was and undoubtedly still is, a 'Remainer' and has a vested interest in letting us all know about the potentially dire economic consequences of Brexit, however debatable the forecasts may be. 

Mr Hammond's latest intervention is nothing more nor less than the latest brick in the wall of 'Project Fear'. No matter what his words appear to say, he is, in truth, arguing for staying in the EU, or, at least, remaining very closely tied to it. With there being very little chance of Mrs May's plan gaining approval, politicians have moved rapidly on to the next stage of the process; will it be another referendum or a General Election ? Either way, Mrs May is dead in the water and her 'colleagues' are circling, positioning themselves for the final strike and succession to the throne.

There can be no doubt that 'Project Fear' has won and that Mrs May, intentionally, as a result of incompetence or accidentally, will be the biggest political loser. However, the real losers will be the 17.4 million people who voted to leave the EU back in June 2016. There will be a second referendum which will be won for 'Remain' by the disenchantment, apathy and disgust of voters, exactly as the EU has wanted all along.

Democracy in the UK is dead and the EU will have its corrupt, bureaucratic way.

GIBRALTAR IS BRITISH, NOW AND FOREVER.

As an agreement on a deal for Brexit, fudged and unsatisfactory though it is, is just about ready for final approval, the Spanish government has come up with new demands about the British territory of Gibraltar. In short, the Spanish are threatening to withhold their approval unless the UK agrees to giving Spain a guarantee of a special say in any arrangements regarding Gibraltar and its future.

What a bloody cheek !!

Gibraltar has been a British territory for more than 300 years and, while Spain may not like it, its people have no desire to be Spanish. The Spanish stance is little different to that adopted by Argentina over the Falkland Islands or other similar disputes that arise from time to time. What the Spanish reaction be, for example, if Portugal laid claim to its former North African colony of Ceuta which was ceded to Spain in 1668 ?

Quite clearly, the Spanish government has seem an opportunity to use Brexit for its own nationalistic purposes, just as the government in Dublin has done. If Mrs May does anything other than tell the Spanish to get lost, she will have failed the UK, Gibraltar, and everyone who values democracy.

NOW EU GOES AFTER GIBRALTAR AND OUR FISH !

Despite all of the recent huffing and puffing over the terms of the proposed 'Brexit deal', not to mention Theresa May's assurances that the deal was effectively sealed in stone, it's now clear that it isn't.

After further talks today, it's being reported that questions still remain over fishing rights and the position of Gibraltar and it's now being said that there will be further last minute discussions on Saturday in an attempt to sign something off in time for the meeting of EU representatives on Sunday. The UK is being pressured to make further concessions while the EU insists that there can be no movement from there side.

As an independent nation, the UK will be sovereign over its territorial waters and for the EU to expect otherwise is unacceptable. If they want to include fishing rights in future trade\ discussions, fine, but to suddenly raise this an issue for the withdrawal agreement cannot be right. As for the position of Gibraltar, Spain is now trying to use this as a bargaining chip for its own nationalistic purposes and should be slapped down by the EU hierarchy; fat chance of that happening as the EU hierarchy appears to be quite happy to use anything that can be dredged up in its determination to force the UK to the brink.

Once again, Theresa May is to be put to the test. Will she have the gumption to tell the EU that enough is enough and there's no more to give, or will she just crumble, as she has done all along ? Brexiteers will be on the look out for any further weakness and this time their position may be rather stronger than it turned out to be last week. Giving way on fishing rights will not be well received and ceding any part of Gibraltar's sovereignty to Spain may well raise more than a few hackles at home.

It looks like being a fun weekend.

WHAT WOULD CHANGING PM ACHIEVE ?

While holding a vote of confidence in Theresa May as leader of the Conservative Party may be increasingly likely, I wonder what it would achieve.

If Mrs May wins the vote, she will undoubtedly remain as party leader and Prime Minister, even if there is a substantial number of votes against her. If she loses such a vote, the party would then be left with the task of finding a new leader at a most difficult time; indeed, who would want the job, given that the scope for either amending Mrs May's draft Brexit agreement is infinitesimal and that the chances of getting the agreement approved by Parliament even less ?

Michael Gove's decision not to resign from the cabinet, following on from his reported rejection of the job of Brexit Secretary seems to suggest that he, at least, is biding his time. Remaining in the cabinet suggests a degree of loyalty to both party and leader, and avoids a charge of being a wrecker.  Gove's decision may also indicate that he does not believe that a confidence vote will produce a change of leader - yet - and, in the eyes of fellow party members, he may well have improved his chances of succeeding to the top job in due course. 

Changing the leader will not change the situation. Mrs May's representatives have agreed a draft plan with representatives of the European Union and it seems that the EU will not accept anything other than cosmetic changes to that plan. At the same time, the plan seems unlikely to prove acceptable to the UK Parliament. To say that the Prime Minister is 'between a rock and a hard place' is an extreme understatement, so why would anyone want to replace her ? Basically, those who hanker after her job would probably be far better off if they simply wait for things to develop further.

Deal or No Deal ? Perhaps we should ask Noel Edmonds to officiate !

IS BREXIT 'DEAL' HEADING FOR THE ROCKS ALREADY ?

-------  and it looks as though the end may be fast approaching.

The Northern Ireland minister, Shailesh Vara, had already resigned in protest at Mrs May's Brexit proposals and now the Brexit Secretary, Dominic Raab, has also walked away. In his resignation letter, Raab pointed at the potential for EU domination over the UK to continue indefinitely and also the threat to the integrity of the UK itself as critical issues. He also referred to the disparity between the proposed deal and what was promised in the last Conservative election manifesto.

Hot on the heels of Raab's resignation, Environment Secretary Michael Gove has cancelled a planned trip to a farming conference in Yorkshire - is he also on the point of quitting his post ? At the same time, arch-Europhile Anna Soubry, a sheep in wolf's clothing if ever there was one, has tweeted to say a) that Raab cynically planned his resignation to make the headlines, b) that the PM must now be considering her position and that we need a 'Government of National Unity' and c) there should be a 'people's vote. Can she really be serious ? This is a Conservative Member of Parliament calling for Jeremy Corbyn to be brought into government !!

There is no doubt that the pack is circling, in all directions, but apparently Mrs May still intends addressing Parliament later this morning. God Help Her !

BREXIT NOW IN THE LAP OF THE GODS !

Judging by the furore, Mrs May's Brexit deal is going to have a tough time getting through Parliament.

Although it was approved at a meeting of the lengthy Cabinet yesterday, the deal cobbled together between Mrs May's lieutenants and representatives of the European Union seems to be on very shaky ground. It's clear that some members of the Cabinet, perhaps as many as 9 or 10, were very unhappy and that the agreement was 'collective' rather than unanimous or even enthusiastic. Arlene Foster of the Democratic Unionists has indicated that her party is unlikely to find the deal acceptable, the Scottish Nationalists have always been clear that they will vote against anything that's put forward and the Labour Party is also plainly opposed for its own political reasons as well as anything else. Given that a significant number of Conservatives, both Brexiteers and Remainers, have indicated that they are likely to vote against the proposals, the chances of the Prime Minister's plan being approved by Parliament seem to be vanishingly small.

That said, politics is a pretty strange game and anything is still possible. The DUP may be cajoled into supporting the plan in order to avoid the spectre of a general election and a Jeremy Corbyn-led government; the Conservative opponents likewise, and there are still a few on the Labour benches who have independent minds and may well vote with Mrs May, also as much to avoid Corbyn gaining power as being in favour of Conservative proposals. All of this also ignores the possibility that any one of the remaining 27 member states of the European Union could decide to reject the deal when it's put to them at a meeting on 25th November.

Where will it all end ? 

ITALY CHALLENGES EU TOO !

While the European Union tries its best to destroy the United Kingdom for daring to leave, the Italians also seem to be embarking on a course designed to lead them into serious conflict with their masters in Brussels.

Defying the European Commission, the government in Rome has decided to stick to its published budget plans even though they've been threatened with punitive action by those who rule the EU. Italy has long had fiscal and monetary problems and has been the recipient of EU largesse in the past in return for cutting spending, but this time they seem to have had enough. The Italian government has determined, against instructions from Brussels, to go ahead with a plan which, according to the EU, threatens to lead to even higher national debt and, consequently, a further decline in financial stability. From the Italian side, the deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini, has said that targets for the deficit at 2.4% and growth at 1.5% are necessary and will be pursued.

Once again, the EU is in conflict with one of its major economies. At the bottom of the issue is the irreconcilable imbalance between sovereign nations and a federalist Union which demands adherence to centrally determined policies which support a centralised financial system. Whether or not this current crisis leads to any changes within the European Union, those changes have to come eventually. Either there must be a single European super state or the bloc must take a step back and relax its control over its member. 

My money's on a break up though when it will come is another question.

ANY BREXIT RATHER THAN CORBYN.

As the rhetoric over a proposed Brexit deal hots up, the Labour party is continuing to look for ways of causing enough mayhem to warrant a general election. What a resulting Corbyn-led government would mean for the country hardly bears thinking about, but the prospect of the current largely invisible members of the shadow cabinet moving into Downing Street is frightening.

Corbyn himself and his right hand man, John McDonnell, are a pretty frightening pair on their own, with their hard line Marxist philosophy , but of the rest, how many of us can name more than 2 or 3 ? Former Director of Public Prosecutions turned politician, Keir Starmer, appears regularly as does the almost unbelievably arrogant Lady Nugee, otherwise known as Emily Thornberry; the softly spoken and often condescending Barry Gardiner and Rebecca Long-Bailey, the shadow Business Secretary whose invented double barrelled name says much about her pretentiousness, are 2 more, but here the well begins to run dry. Deputy party leader Tom Watson has almost disappeared from view over the last couple of years while even the normally pretentious Diane Abbot has been unusually absent. Of the rest, who can name even one ?

Could this bunch of nonentities really be put in charge of our country ? Wealthy and privileged, self serving and willing to do anything in pursuit of power, they profess one thing and do another. Even Corbyn and McDonnell would insulate themselves from the terrifying effects of their own policies, presiding in Stalinesque grandeur over the proletariat. This mob have hidden behind their highly subjective 'Six Tests' as a way of clearing the decks for a vote against almost any Brexit agreement that is cobbled together, irrespective of its content and simply in pursuit of office. The interests of the nation matter not a jot to them.

Whatever Mrs May comes up with, the one thing we cannot risk is a Corbyn-led dictatorship.

JOHNSON MINOR STIRS IT UP !

The resignation of Boris' little brother, Jo Johnson, from Theresa May's government looks to be another step in the ever-evolving campaign to stop Brexit. 

Johnson says that he can't accept Mrs May's proposals for Brexit and has resigned in order to be able to vote against them; this is before any proposals have actually been put forward. Perhaps quite rightly, he also says that what Mrs May is likely to put forward is not what the people actually voted for back in 2016 though his solution, another referendum, is nothing more nor less than part of the Remain campaign of which he was, and remains, a member.

Johnson dissembles in the way that all politicians do, that is, he distorts facts for his own purposes and muddies the water so as to make it virtually impossible to tell fact from fiction. He talks about Brexit as if it has different 'types' or is something tangible; it is not. Leaving the European Union is an intangible and non-negotiable act, decided by a vote of the British people and agreed to by Parliament. There are no 'types' of Brexit, there is simply Brexit.

Johnson says that the current situation and what is currently 'on the table' is a far cry from what was promised during the referendum campaign; on this point he is correct, but a second referendum will not put things right. A second referendum is simply an attempt by the Remain campaign to reverse the result of the first, hence the tidal wave of horror stories about shortages of food and drugs, motorways used as lorry parks, queues at ports, visas for European travel and all the rest. 

There is no doubt that Mrs May has made a terrible hash of negotiating with the European Union though whether this has been deliberate or a result of incompetence is an open question. Might she, and her fellow Europhiles, have deliberately messed things up precisely so as to arrive at today's debacle ? Or was she just not up to the job of negotiating with the miserable bureaucrats of the EU ? It matters not which is the case as the outcome is the same. The European Union has dominated proceedings while Mrs May has been servile.

It seems probable that Mrs May's proposals, almost whatever they are, will be rejected by Parliament, resulting in yet more demands for a second referendum. Thus far, the Prime Minister, from her bunker at 10 Downing Street, has resolutely rejected all such calls, but time is running out, both for any Brexit deal to be agreed and for her personally. Might she find herself in such a tight corner that another referendum becomes her way out ?

David Cameron offered a referendum and said that the government would stand by its outcome. Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn both stood on platforms of carrying through this promise in the 2017 general election and Parliament has voted, several times, to do so. For there to be a reversal of this policy, in any way, would be such a betrayal of the democratic process that democracy in our country would be, effectively, destroyed. I voted to leave the European Union as did more than 17 million others; we didn't vote for any particular 'type' of Brexit, we just voted to leave. We weren't bothered about the detail, we just wanted out of a moribund, hidebound, bureaucratic, unaccountable and corrupt organisation that is stifling its members. That's still what I want, irrespective of the scare-mongering of those who still refuse to accept the result of the referendum. 

If there is no deal, so what ? The UK will leave the EU with no obligations and with its £39 billion still in the bank; there will be consequences but so there will be for the EU, probably greater ones as it tries to plug the gap in its finances and deal with an open border in Ireland. Why should the UK be worried about such an outcome ? Why on earth should we have a second referendum ?

Should the government eventually renege on its promises, reverse its position and hold a second referendum, the betrayal of trust in politics and politicians would be such as to make all future voting pointless. The people would know that it matters not what they vote for, the political elite will find a way to obtain their own desired outcome, come what may. 

If there is a second referendum, I shall not vote, for what would be the point ? In fact, I would never vote in any election or referendum for the rest of my life as to do so would be utterly futile. 

ARRESTED FOR BURNING CARDBOARD !

Five men have been arrested for burning a cardboard model of a 'tower block', videoing the event and broadcasting the video on the internet. Apparently, what they did is considered to be a 'public order offence'.

It's reported that the tower block was meant to be a representation of Grenfell Tower and that the men could be heard laughing and joking as the model burned, but a criminal offence ? Really ??

This act may have been stupid, pathetic, puerile, moronic, offensive, uncaring, etc., etc,. etc., but have we really reached such a dictatorial stage in our affairs that being a moron is criminal ? If so, when are the police going to start rounding up the many other morons who surround us ? I have only to drive around for half and hour to find morons in cars, driving dangerously, carelessly and without regard for others - how many of these are ever arrested ? Their offences are almost always far more 'criminal' than is the burning of a cardboard model.

Theresa May has called the video "utterly unacceptable". What on earth has something so pathetic got to do with the Prime Minister ? Why does she feel the need to express an opinion of any sort on the matter ? Is this not another measure of the depths to which our society has sunk, when our political leader becomes involved in trivia and the minutiae of daily life ? In fact, by issuing a comment, she may even have damaged the prospects of these morons getting a fair trial, should things ever get that far.

Arresting people for stupid so-called offences is a waste of police resources that might well lead to a waste of yet more public resources. This stupid act should have been ignored by all and sundry, after all, it seems likely that publicity is what the idiots wanted so deny it to them. Instead, they have been awarded all of the publicity they craved and will be able to dine out on it for a long time to come, once they've had their wrists slapped. 

We really are becoming a pathetic laughing stock of a country.

CRUNCH TIME FOR BREXIT FAST APPROACHING

The anti-democracy movement really is getting into full swing.

Over the weekend, we've had stories of a gaggle of 'business leaders' signing a petition demanding a second Brexit referendum quickly followed by a similar story about a bunch of lawyers. Thrown in for good measure has been copious coverage of the totally unsubstantiated allegations being made against arch-Brexiteer Aaron Banks who was forced to endure the BBC's version of an impartial interview on the Andrew Marr programme on Sunday. The jolly old Beeb has, inevitably, made much of these anti-Brexit issues, quite regardless of matters of relevance or fact; in their eyes it seems that anything anti-Brexit is news to be shouted from the roof tops.

The latest seems to be a suggestion that Theresa May has cobbled together some sort of proposal for ensuring a Brexit deal by offering to keep the whole United Kingdom inside of the EU's customs' union, a move which would lead to the most limited form of independence for the UK after Brexit - BRINO, or 'Brexit in name only'. Can she really be serious, or is this just more media tripe ? Surely there are far too many in her own party who would baulk at such an outcome and her chances of securing a deal on this basis must be remote, so what next ?

In Ireland, Prime Minister Leo Varadkar, a man who seems to hate the UK with a vengeance, and his deputy Simon Coveney have both been making noises about the border issue and general relations between the UK and the Republic. In truth, this is no more than hot air and wind, though the rhetoric is being ramped up. Comments about threats to the Good Friday Agreement and, by implication, the relatively peaceful atmosphere that has existed for the last 20 years or so are a clear indication the Republic will use every weapon at its disposal in order to further its ultimate aim of reunifying the island of Ireland.

Something must give within days if there is to be a Brexit deal. The question is "will anyone do the giving and, if so, who will it be ?"

HATE CRIMES OR BURGLARIES ? WHICH TO POLICE.

A former police Chief Constable has finally talked some sense.

At a conference attended by senior police officers and police and crime commissioners, Sara Thornton has pointed out that, at a time of limited resources, police should concentrate on dealing with violent crimes and burglaries, rather than spending their time on pursuing allegations against the dead or filling in reports of incidents which are not even crimes, such as supposed misogyny. Ms Thornton, now Chairman of the National Police Chiefs' Council, spoke against the current move to provide bespoke services for a plethora of supposedly desirable or deserving causes, saying that there are simply too many of these. Citing pressure to turn misogynistic acts into 'hate crimes', Thornton referred to this as being "a concern for some well-organised campaigning organisations", but clearly doesn't share their zeal.

Sadly, it seems that Ms Thornton's views are not shared by the government and its advisors. Last month, the Law Commission began to look at whether offences supposedly motivated by dislike, contempt or prejudice between the sexes should be classified as 'hate crimes', and is also considering whether prejudice supposedly based on issues of age or dislike of groups such as 'goths' or 'punks' should also be so-classified. One dreads the outcome of such nonsensical considerations.

How long will it be before simply looking at someone a bit quizzically becomes a 'hate crime' ? How long before we are now longer allowed to express any opinion about anything that doesn't comply with the rigid strictures laid down by our Masters ? There are many things I don't like but to make the expression of my feelings a 'hate crime' would be to bring about the horrifying world envisaged by George Orwell in his then futuristic novel '1984'.

Just so that I can get a few 'dislikes' in while it's still legal, here's some to be going on with :

Football hooligans,
Lying, deceitful politicians
The BBC
Burkas and niqabs
Those who parade their sexuality
Communist agitators.
Self-aggrandising 'celebrities'
Pop culture
Drug dealers
Robert Peston
Wishy-washy liberals
Religious fanatics
Feminists
Misogynists
Paedophiles
Diane Abbot
Illegal immigrants
Immigrants who don't integrate
John Prescott
Michael Heseltine
Jenni Murray
The lazy and work shy.
-- and lots more.

To be clear, I dislike these things and people, I don't hate them, though to see some of them boiled in oil would probably be quite satisfying, not that I'd do it or encourage others to do so. !