Another day, another forecast.
Today it's the turn of the Institute for Fiscal Studies to throw its weight behind the 'Remain' campaign. In common with the horde of other public bodies, the Institute claims that a vote to 'Leave' could be catastrophic for the UK economy. Also in common with many of these same bodies, they benefit from public funding, in the case of the IFS its funding from a body called the European Research Council which is an arm of the European Union. Some might claim that the ERC is an independent body, however its €13bn budget comes from the EU, a simple fact which must raise questions about its independence.
Again in common with the claims of many in the 'Remain' camp, the IFS is forecasting immediate horrors in the event of a vote to leave the EU, though it has little to say about the longer term effects. It makes a raft of assumptions about what would happen in the days following a 'Brexit' vote, again much the same assumptions as those made by others, although even then it doesn't actually come to quite the same detailed conclusions; in fact, its numbers are not the same as those produced by the Treasury a few days ago. Nonetheless, it seems that they are doing little more than 'following the 'herd' and it's hardly surprising that they come up with the same broad conclusions.
What they don't seem to have bothered to do is to look with any real interest at the potential longer term effects. Admittedly, the longer term is much more difficult to forecast than tomorrow but leaving the EU is about the longer term and not about tomorrow. Considering what will happen in 10, 20 or 30 years is what this referendum is all about, it is not about next week, next month or even next year.
Forecasting what will happen if we stay in the EU is simple. It will lead to more of the same; more stifling bureaucracy, more economic woe, more protectionism, less autonomy and eventual collapse. Forecasting precisely what will happen and the path that will be followed if we leave is more difficult but it will eventually lead to freedom from all of this, economic growth and a much broader world outlook. The days immediately following a vote to 'Leave' may well be difficult but the ultimate rewards will be well worth the pain.
A vote to 'Remain' is a vote for more of the same, a vote for the 'safe option', a vote for those who are frightened of leaving home and are scared of the dark. A vote to 'Leave' is a vote for change, a vote for self determination and adventure, it is a vote for those who have no fear of the dark but want to find out what is 'Out There'. It is a vote in the tradition of those great explorers of yesteryear without whose courage our modern world would not exist.
There is only one option. VOTE LEAVE.
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