BREXIT : BANK OF ENGLAND AT IT AGAIN.

On of the major 'anti-Brexit' players is the Bank of England which has done nothing but issue dire warnings about the consequences of leaving the European Union since well before the referendum. In fact, led by George Osborne's pal, Canadian Mark Carney, it seems to have been at the forefront of the 'Remain' campaign throughout the last 2 years.

Having got many of its prognostications wrong does not seem to have affected its desire to continue to try to scare us all into changing our minds about the EU. Today it appears to have 'leaked' that it is assuming job losses of 'up to 75,000' in the financial services sector, a number which has been seized upon by the BBC, another major anti-Brexit campaigner. It's reported that 'senior figures' at the bank believe that 75,000 is a 'reasonable scenario' though what this number is base on isn't stated. As a get out clause, the bank is also accepting that the number could change depending on the UK's post-Brexit trading relationship with the EU.

What a load of old cobblers. Those from the 'Remain' campaign who refuse to accept the verdict of the referendum have continued to toss out scare stories willy-nilly. Tony Blair, Nick Clegg and Mark Carney's ban are merely the tip of the iceberg; can we forget Gina Miller, the pro-European who vociferously denied that her own campaign had nothing to do with our EU membership but was simply about making sure correct legal procedures were followed ? Ms Miller is another who now continues to pop up here and there voicing her strident opposition to Brexit.

Perhaps there will be job losses in financial services but perhaps it's about time. There are far too many grotesquely overpaid bankers, stockbrokers and insurance officials who all make their money by robbing the rest of us blind and who would really care if we got rid of a few of these leaches ?

Contrary to the dire predictions made around the time of the referendum, the UK's economy has continued to grow, the pound has not collapsed and unemployment is at levels not seen in decades. Yes, it's not all been plain sailing and there may well be a few difficult times still to come over the next 18 months but don't be conned by these doom-mongers. The UK will emerge from Brexit stronger and fitter than it's been for many years and fully ready to venture out into a much wider world than is encompassed by the protectionist, bureaucratic and inward looking European Union.

SOCIAL CARE FUNDING : USE MY HOUSE !

With the next Budget due very soon, there have been the usual speculations about what steps Chancellor Hammond might take in order to boost the popularity of the Conservative government. As usual, most of the speculation is likely to be nothing but the imaginings of the fevered minds in the media, but some suggestions may be closer to the mark.

One of the ideas suggested has been that the Chancellor may look for ways to transfer resources from the elderly to the younger generation who are currently less than enthusiastic about the Conservative Party. It's been suggested that there could be some form of tax increases that would only affect the elderly though how realistic, and politically acceptable, any such move would be is questionable.

One of the main reasons for the failure of the Conservative election campaign was their suggestion of using the resources tied up in property to pay for social care in old age; the idea, as presented, proved electorally disastrous. For some reason that I can't really understand, it has become an accepted fact that 'the family home' is somehow sacrosanct and can't be touched. Government has even added weight to this notion by providing some inheritance tax exemptions for family homes, quite illogically in my view.

People who were able to save during their lifetimes traditionally did so for the purpose of being able to live a reasonably comfortable old age. Savings may have been as money in the bank, investments or even insurance policies, though for most, by far the most significant saving was their family home. Paid for out of their income over many years, their home was their principal asset and, as such, was realisable in the event of financial need. No more, it seems. The home is now protected to be passed on to subsequent generations who have done nothing to earn their good fortune.

If Chancellor Hammond really wants to transfer resources from the elderly to the young, he needs look no further than to a reversion of this crazy approach. My home belongs to me and I can see no logical reason for it's value not being used to fund any social care needs that I may have in old age. I see no logical reason why my home should be passed on, tax free, to the next generation when it is that generation that is then expected to pay for my social care costs - it's nonsensical.

Assets that are accumulated during a lifetime are not for the purpose of passing on but as a hedge against old age and infirmity. The Chancellor should remove the inheritance tax exemptions that currently apply and make it clear that social care costs are the responsibility of individuals, with appropriate safeguards and limits in place. Taxes could then be reduced, largely benefitting the young, one of those taxes quite possibly being inheritance tax itself which is currently levied at a penal rate of 40%, and this on assets which have been accumulated out of already taxed income, too.

That our tax and benefits system is a mess is something that everyone knows. If Chancellor Hammond wants to make a name for himself, he should do something about it, and tackling the stupidity that surrounds houses and the funding of social care would be a good place to start. The policy proposed in the Conservative election manifesto was right all along.

BREXIT REALLY DOES MEAN BREXIT !

Those who refuse to accept the result of the EU referendum continue to try to scare our population into changing its mind on the matter. Today, it was the turn of the oily Peter Mandelson who trotted out the same tired old clichés on the 'Today' programme.

As with all of his like-minded pals, Mandelson repeatedly uses meaningless phrases such as 'hard Brexit', suggesting that the government is hell bent on some sort of horrible action that will hurt us all. The fact is that there is no 'hard Brexit' any more than there is a 'soft Brexit'; there is no option to leave the European Union but stay inside the Customs Union and Single Market which is the supposed 'soft Brexit' option promoted by the dyed in the wool remainers. Banal as it sounds, Brexit does actually mean Brexit - the UK will leave the EU in March 2019 and what matters are the bilateral agreements that are then put in place, not any nonsense about staying in various bits of the EU.

Remainers are continuing to make the same arguments that they made in 2016; leaving the EU will destroy our economy, the pound will collapse, everyone will be poorer, blah blah. So far, it hasn't happened and the truth is that it won't. Yes, there may be a few rocky times but aren't there always ? The UK has suffered a few unpleasant economic times over the last 40 years - Healey's trip to the IMF, our exit from the ERM and the 2008 'crash' among them; we were INSIDE the EU on these occasions and at least one of them was directly caused by the EU.

Remainers tell us, repeatedly, that 'everyone knows' that Brexit will be disastrous and a 'hard Brexit' the worst of all worlds. Quite clearly, 'everyone' does not 'know' this and it is just more of the scaremongering which is the only real weapon of this undemocratic bunch of elitist, left-leaning, so-called intellectuals.

There will be a deal. It may come at the last second of the last minute but it will come. It will also be realistic. The UK will agree to pay some money but not as much as some have suggested. There will be a trade deal, largely because the EU wants it as much as does the UK. The UK's involvement in a variety of European organisations and projects will continue through partnership agreements. The European Court of Justice will  no longer have power over the UK. European citizens in the UK and UK citizens in Europe will all be protected.

All of this will happen because it must. The political posturing of the puffed up bureaucrats of the EU will dissolve into nothingness as the desperate need for an agreement becomes apparent to all. Pragmatism will prevail over hype and rhetoric, obstructionist jargon and political shilly-shallying.

Roll on April 2019 when all of this twaddle will be over.

MAY GOES OFF TO SWAY EU LEADERS

Theresa May has trotted off to make yet another approach to leaders of the European Union in an effort to get them to see sense. Sadly, their negotiators have continued to be obstructive and unhelpful over the 'Brexit' discussions but there is a meeting of the national leaders which could change all of that.

While the UK appears to be bending over backwards over the question of citizens' rights, and has no desire to create difficulties over the Irish border, the EU's negotiators have been 'hung up' over money; they won't accept that a financial bill cannot be agreed until the overall terms of the UK's departure are known and refuse to allow the discussions to move onto trade arrangements.

In talking to the leaders today, May hopes to be able to encourage the EU to be more realistic and positive; her chances appear slim. She is under pressure to issue ultimatums about walking away without a deal but won't do that; what she might do is to alluded to the pressure and the possibilities of a 'no-deal' while making it clear that she doesn't want such an outcome. Maggie would have done this and been taken seriously, but could May get away with it ?

The only thing that's clear is that nothing's clear. Politicians are a universally disingenuous and untrustworthy bunch, interested only in maintaining their own power and authority and achieving their own ends. Whether anything will result from this latest talking shop, God knows.

BREXIT BAD SAYS OECD - THERE'S A SURPRISE !

It's just been reported that the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development - usually referred to as the OECD - has issued another negative statement regarding the supposed effects of Brexit.

This time, following several previous negative statements, the OECD is predicting that growth in the UK's economy will fall and the pound will slump, although a reversal of the Brexit decision would be universally positive and save us from Armageddon. The BBC has leapt upon this news as another opportunity to promote its anti-Brexit position, but exactly what is the OECD ?

Originally founded in 1948 as an entirely European organisation, the present incarnation came into being in 1961, when non-European countries were invited to join. The organisation is based in France and is, in effect, a talking shop for political representatives from numerous nations to try to apply pressure wherever they feel it's needed.

Twenty two of the current 35 members of the OECD are also members of the European Union, including the United Kingdom. A number of major 'emerging' economies are not members, notably the so-called BRICs countries - Brazil, Russia, India and China - and also Indonesia, Nigeria, Malaysia, and other countries which are likely to be the major growth areas in the coming decades; only one country form South America and 2 from Asia (excluding Turkey and Israel) are members. In essence, the OECD is a protectionist Western organisation run by the current leading economic powers and for the benefit of the same powers; it's hardly lacking in bias.

Along with assorted other protectionist lobbyists, the OECD is keen to avoid any disturbance to the 'status quo'; it likes things as they are and hates the uncertainty of change. That it's forecasts for the UK's economy are repeatedly and universally gloomy is hardly a surprise, though listening to the way in which its prognostications are reported could make one believe that it is the fount of all knowledge and wisdom and to oppose it can only lead to catastrophe.

Perhaps the OECD is right and Brexit will lead to disaster, but what if it's wrong and Brexit actually opens up a brave new world of opportunity ? Over the centuries and millennia of recorded history, those who decried exploration, new ideas and change were almost always wrong. Those brave souls who sailed the oceans to discover not only that the world wasn't flat but also new continents would never have been funded by the OECD; those who claimed that human beings could never withstand the 'high speeds' of trains were shown to be ludicrously wrong. Man could never fly, said some, and the earth was at the centre of the universe claimed others. So many discoveries and inventions would have been stifled had those with the mind set of the OECD won the day.

Today, the OECD and like-minded international organisations do everything that they can to support their economic world view; they reject all alternatives and sail on, ignoring the danger signals that are everywhere. Vast debt, both personal and governmental eventually has to be settled; vast inequalities between nations that mean the 'developed' economies are living on borrowed time, as well as money, are ignored. Withdraw and protect is the policy and it's doomed to failure.

The next major war will be all about economic power and opportunity. The billions in Asia, Africa and South America will eventually demand their pound of flesh, and the sooner we in the West realise it, the better. Free and fair trade for all is the way forward and the OECD needs to look outwards not inwards if it's to be taken seriously.

BREXIT : IS THE EU WAKING UP AT LAST ?

Another round of 'Brexit' negotiations has come and gone and, once again, the lugubrious Michel Barnier has grumbled about the lack of progress and implied intransigence of the UK. However, behind the scenes, it appears as though Barnier's bosses may be starting to see things a bit differently.

Barnier was given a brief to follow and, like a good little bureaucrat, he's following it to the letter. In his eyes, the UK must agree the so-called 'exit bill' before talks can move on to issues such as trade;  that this position is unsustainable matters not one jot to Mr Barnier. The illogic seems to escape him - how can the UK agree a final bill before it knows what the final terms of its divorce are ?

However, it is now being reported that there is movement from the European Union. It is claimed that an 'internal document' prepared by some other EU bureaucrat suggests that the remaining 27 countries should start discussing potential post-Brexit trade arrangements among themselves in readiness for subsequent discussions with the UK. Clearly, someone in the EU has woken up to the very simple fact that post-Brexit trade arrangements are even more important to the EU than they are to the UK.

Of course, this doesn't mean that there will be any sudden change in the rhetoric but it does suggest that, at last, the intransigence of the EU might be beginning to break and a degree of realism might be emerging. Perhaps they've started to understand that a 'no deal' scenario is a genuine possibility and that the UK really could just walk away, paying nothing at all. From the EU's point of view, that would be true catastrophe.

Let's hope that the EU leaders, who meet next week, demonstrate rather more realism than the hidebound Barnier has been able to manage so far.

THERESA MAY : CHARACTER ABOVE ALL ELSE

A few short months ago, it seemed that Theresa May was in total control of both her party and the country. She was being compared, rather ridiculously it must be said, to Margaret Thatcher and replacing her simply wasn't on the cards. Then she made a mistake.

May's mistake wasn't calling an election, although that was unexpected and it seems that it was a personal decision which took even her Cabinet colleagues by surprise. Her mistake was the way in which she launched a very 'Presidential' campaign and then mucked it up. In particular, the way in which she proposed changes to the funding of social care was catastrophic and Jeremy Corbyn hasn't looked back since. The election was an effective disaster for May and calls for her to go arose from every quarter.

Of course, she hasn't gone, yet. In fact, it seemed likely that she might well last until at least the end of 2018 and perhaps until after the UK's actual departure from the European Union in March 2019; that was until yesterday's troubled Conference speech. Now, the media, led by the accursed lefties of the BBC, is baying for blood and hunting around to find anyone who will stand up and say that May has to go.

To be fair, the Conference speech wasn't the rip-roaring success that Jeremy Corbyn enjoyed last week but then Corbyn is currently more of a celebrity pop star at the moment; one might almost have expected swooning girls to be ripping off their underwear and throwing it on to the stage during his performance. No, May is a much more of a pragmatic character who gets on with the job without the histrionics so beloved of some. Sadly for her, yesterday not only were there no histrionics, pretty much everything else went wrong as well.

Trying to make an hour-long speech while suffering from a bad sore throat was bad enough but experiencing an interruption from some character who'd managed to avoid the security arrangements really wasn't needed, though she dealt with the situation rather well. She also had a handy line ready when Chancellor Hammond offered her a cough sweet and, given her travails, got through a very difficult ordeal remarkably well. Nonetheless, when the letters of the party's slogan began falling off of the wall behind her, it really seemed that her luck was out.

In truth, it was a terrifically brave performance and seems to have received the full backing of her Cabinet colleagues, although listening to the BBC one wouldn't necessarily know that. They seem more interested in concentrating on the few disaffected backbenchers who've reportedly been discussing moves to ask for May to resign, although no one has yet stuck their head above the parapet which suggests this is mostly hot air.

A leadership battle now would be disastrous for both Party and country. Labour would seize the opportunity to try to force a general election with their opponents in total disarray and the Brexit negotiations would grind to a halt. The supposed uncertainty which business leaders keep whining about over Brexit would become a reality and there'd be mayhem on the stock market while the pound would probably collapse. Senior Conservative figures know all of this and that's why they rallied behind May yesterday and will continue to do so, while prodding and poking at times, until Brexit is a done deal.

May's tenacity in carrying on against all the odds, both since the election and during yesterday's speech, says a lot about her character and I don't see her going anytime soon, whatever mischief the BBC and the rest of the media trolls try to stir up.

DEMOCRACY RULES, OK ?

Many of the people of the Spanish region of Catalonia want to be independent of the government in Madrid. Similar to many Scots, they no longer want to be a part of a country, they want to be a country in it's own right.

In the UK, the government, reluctantly, allowed the Scots to hold a referendum on the question of their independence and the majority voted to remain as part of the United Kingdom. In Spain yesterday, things were very different.

Apparently, holding independence referendums is illegal in Spain and so the central government took extraordinary steps to try to prevent one from taking place. With soldiers and armed police on the streets, voters were intimidated and brutalised, polling stations ransacked and ballot papers destroyed. The Spanish Prime Minister appeared on television to make a few noises about unity or some such but utterly ignored the shocking and appalling violence being perpetrated on his own people by his own police and military.

This was a dreadful indictment of the supposed democracy in Spain but is also mirrored to a degree by the way in which the European Union is attempting to punish the United Kingdom for its 'Brexit' referendum. Rather than accept the Will of the people and behave democratically, politicians of all flavours act like dictators, imposing their Will on others regardless of all else.

Politicians lie and cheat routinely. They will say whatever they believe will bring them power and, once they have that power, they will do whatever they like regardless of what the people want. Why on earth do we let them treat us this way ?