Friday 24 June 2016

EU REFERENDUM : IT'S 'BREXIT' !!

The Referendum is over, now the real struggle begins.

Last night's events were astonishing and momentous as millions of ordinary people finally made their voices heard. Europe has been shaken to its core as voters gave the '2-fingered salute' to both the UK government and its counterparts in the European Union. European politicians and bureaucrats are stunned and horrified but it's no more than they deserve after months and years of unaccountable diktats and appalling complacency; for years they have ignored their people and their arrogance has now come back to bite them very hard indeed. Anti-EU factions in other European countries are now demanding their own referendums, particularly in France, Italy and the Netherlands as the much-feared 'contagion' takes hold.

Financial markets had made an early judgement that voters would opt for the status quo and, possibly reluctantly, vote for 'Remain'. The UK stock market had experienced several days of steady rises and the pound soared to levels not seen since late last year; so much for experts. Once it became clear that 'Remain' was in trouble the pound began to fall, precipitately at times, and the FTSE 100 stock market index dropped by over 500 points, or 8%, at it's opening. BUT both have shown some resilience already, the FTSE 100 regaining ground to stand higher than it was a week ago, and the pound also recovering to only a little below the levels of recent weeks. In contrast, foreign markets, particularly in the EU, have fallen harder and further, indicating where the real problems are. BREXIT is more of a problem for the other EU nations and to suggest that these countries will risk their own economies by being difficult over the matter of the UK's exit is ludicrous.

On the back of the result, David Cameron has announced that he will resign once a new Conservative Party leader has been elected, but he's done this in a way which is indicative of the arrogance of modern political leaders. Standing at a lectern in Downing Street, in Presidential style and accompanied by his wife, Cameron made his announcement; why on earth was his wife there ? This is not the USA and Cameron is not a President with a 'First Family' around him, but the way in which he and some of his recent predecessors have acted has created that illusion. How the mighty are fallen.

The UK government will now have to consider exactly how it proceeds. Legally, nothing has yet changed and nothing will change until the EU is served an appropriate 'Article 50' notice; this could happen within days but it will more likely be months. Once this is done, renegotiation will begin and the shape of the future  will begin to unfold. Who will lead this process is yet to be decided, there will undoubtedly be a new leader of the Conservative Party and a new Prime Minister; there could be an early General Election, and Jeremy Corbyn's position as leader of the Labour Party could be threatened.

The nest few weeks, months and even years may well be uncertain and rocky but, ultimately, the UK will be in control of its own destiny. Bring it on !

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