It's reported that Teresa May has decided to 'delay' the proposed vote in the House of Commons regarding her Brexit deal due to there being no realistic chance that it will receive anything but a massive rejection. At the same time, the word from EU sources is that there is no room for, or intention to engage in, any renegotiation. It seems that Mrs May is now drinking in the last chance saloon.
With the European Court of Justice arriving at an unbelievably rapid decision on the question of whether or not an 'Article 50' notice can be revoked unilaterally and concluding that it can with no change in the submitter nation's membership status, is Brexit now also on its last legs ? There seems no chance whatsoever of Mrs May gaining approval for her 'deal' no matter how long it is delayed, and the question of where we go next must be the one that matters.
Without any movement from the EU, Mrs May's time as Prime Minister must surely be coming to an end in the next few weeks but a change of Prime Minister will do little to change the dynamics of the situation. A second referendum would take months to organise and would undermine the democratic process by effectively ignoring the democratic decision of the first; if the result reinforced the decision of the first, it is surely likely that the arch-remainers would still refuse to accept it and if the result was a decision to remain there would be mayhem. It would be 1-1 and there'd surely be calls for a decider.
A general election would almost certainly result in another 'hung Parliament', although with Labour probably being the more likely party to be in a position to form a government; where that would lead is anyone's guess, though revocation, or extension, of 'Article 50' would probably be high on their list of things to do, again creating democratic and constitutional chaos.
Having submitted the 'Article 50' notice, and passed an Act in Parliament which included the definite withdrawal date of 29th March 2019, the United Kingdom WILL leave the EU on that date, barring the passing of some emergency legislation which is unlikely to be proposed by a Conservative government, although Labour one may do so. Will a different Conservative leader be able to wring any concessions out of the EU, or get a 'deal' through parliament ? Perhaps one solution might be for a new Prime Minister to propose 'No Deal' to parliament but to link it with adherence to Mrs May's 'deal' minus the Irish backstop. The EU wouldn't like it but it could be a way of getting something through the UK parliament; the EU would then be in a position of having to either reject 99% of what it has itself agreed or 'put up and shut up'.
As things currently stand, Brexit will happen without a formal deal which isn't as terrifying as some would have us believe. In fact, many of the horror stories are simply that, stories which lack any basis in fact. Without a deal, the UK would not pay its £39bn and would have to trade with EU countries on WTO terms - given that the trade balance is massively in the EU's favour anyway, that doesn't seem too bad as the incentive to come to a deal would then be firmly with them. From an EU perspective, surely accepting a very small compromise, as suggested above, would be beneficial and preferable.
However, the forces of Remain are unlikely to be quelled by any deal. Hiding behind calls for more referendums, elections and revocations, they simply want to impose their will on the 17.4 million of the population who, in their view, were too stupid to know what they were voting for. Might they yet succeed, one way or another ?
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