So, finally, 48 Conservative Members of Parliament have submitted their letters and there's to be a vote of confidence in Prime Minister Teresa May. At about 9pm tonight, we will discover the real level of support which she commands within her party.
There is much analysis, comment and general noise in the media with huge amounts of speculation and 'what if' discussion, but the simple fact is that it's all pointless drivel until the result of the vote is known. If Mrs May loses, the Conservative Party will immediately begin the process to elect a new leader; if she wins well, she will stay in office and survive for at least another 12 months. If she wins, but with substantial votes against her, she may be forced to resign in the coming days. What does all this mean for Brexit ?
Again, the simple answer is that no one knows until after the vote and even then it may be several weeks before anything happens. Mrs May's 'Deal' has no support in Parliament and is highly unlikely to be voted through whoever is Prime Minister; she has no stated 'Plan B', so chaos will ensue. A new Prime Minister may make noise about renegotiation but the reality is that the EU is holding firm; there will be no renegotiation.
We are left with a 'Deal' that has no support, no 'Plan B' and no renegotiation - that seems to add up to only 2 options - 'No Deal' or 'No Brexit'.
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