So Teresa May has survived, temporarily at least. She managed to get 200 of her fellow MPs to support her favour in a confidence vote while 'only' 117 voted to remove her. What next ?
Perhaps significantly, around 140 of those who supported Mrs May are members of the extended government or are otherwise dependent upon her for their positions; in other words, only about 60 back bench members of the Party supported her. With more than a third of the parliamentary party openly opposed and another fifth offering dubious support, May's authority must now be all but gone. She is at the mercy of her Cabinet colleagues in the first instance and at the mercy of at least the 117 thereafter. Despite MPs being unable to call for another vote of confidence for a minimum of 12 months, matters could easily force her out of office within a much shorter period of time.
Regardless of all this turmoil, Mrs May has trotted off to Brussels to have more, probably pointless, talks with EU leaders. Suggestions of adding 'clarifications' to various elements of the withdrawal agreement seems little more than window dressing and would have no real effect; those in Parliament who simply find the agreement unacceptable will hardly find EU 'reassurances' of any value.
Yesterday's events gave Mrs May a little more time though even that is now limited; in order to win the vote of confidence, she agreed to step down from the leadership of her party before the next general election, scheduled for 2022. What happens if the government falls and an election occurs earlier is an unknown quantity. Other than this concession on her part, nothing has really changed. The withdrawal agreement has no chance of being approved by Parliament as it is and the EU has made it clear that they will not change it any way. It seems highly unlikely that 'clarifications' or 'reassurances' from the EU will do anything to encourage opponents of the agreement to change their voting intentions and the House of Commons will almost certainly reject the agreement in a vote at some time in the next month or so. Once that happens, all bets are off.
Labour will surely then call for a vote of no confidence in the government which they might well win. If they do, a general election will be the result, quite possibly accompanied by a delay, at least, in the UK's exit from the EU. Exactly how the parties would line up and what their manifestoes would say, heaven knows.
A Labour government following such an election would, apparently, want to renegotiate all over again, something which the EU has already ruled out, or has it ? If the Conservatives were to win such an election, would our 'representatives', elected with new mandates, then vote for a deal which they despise or would they carry on ignoring the expressed Will of the People ?
If Labour loses the no confidence vote we would be left with the situation as now, with Parliament paralysed and looking for a way out - a second referendum would then loom large. Would the result of a second referendum be accepted by all, or would those who don't like the answer, whichever way it goes, carry on the fight ?
We really are in a terrible mess. Incompetence from Mrs May and her Brexit negotiators has brought us to an impossible position. The UK is effectively being held to ransom by the Republic of Ireland which is pursuing its own political ends and by the EU negotiators who want to make us pay for having the temerity to leave their little club.
I see no way out. We are heading for a general election and the strong possibility of Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street, GOD HELP US.
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