Wednesday 9 October 2019

IRELAND STILL THE STICKING POINT.

With Brexit negotiations increasingly rancorous and divisive, it seems clear that the one and only real issue is that of the border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic, an issue which is being used by the Republic's government as a lever to try to force reunification of their divided island.

As a proportion of the EU's trade, what crosses the border in Ireland is minute, likewise for the UK's trade. Neither the UK nor the EU wants to introduce a massive border infrastructure and the UK has proposed various measures to ensure that border checks are minimal. However, neither the government in Dublin nor the bureaucrats of Brussels have shown any willingness to discuss such proposals, persisting in their demands that the "Irish Backstop" is the only way forward, something they know would severely weaken the connection between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom and which they know is unacceptable to the government of the UK.

Ireland has been a problem for centuries, ever since King Henry VIII effectively annexed it. Religious differences have exacerbated the historic mistreatment of many of its citizens and the eventual separation of the predominantly Catholic south from the predominantly Protestant north did little but bring a temporary halt to the troubles of the early 20th century. The resurgence of violence in the 1960s was nothing but a resurfacing of centuries old hatreds and, again, the solution of the "Good Friday Agreement" did nothing but bring about a temporary cessation of hostilities. The Republic and the still extant and active IRA continue to aim for reunification while the Protestants of the North still hate such a prospect. The two sides are irreconcilable.

There seems to be little chance of the Republic's government agreeing to anything that would weaken their position and no UK government could agree to anything that effectively breaks up its country. Unless the Irish and the EU are prepared to agree to a compromise which safeguards the total integrity of the United Kingdom, surely no Brexit deal is currently possible and the options for a future resolution are limited.

A further delay to the date of Brexit, beyond 31st October, will serve little purpose given the attitudes of the Irish Republic and the EU and a second Brexit referendum would be a betrayal of the democratic process in the UK. The remaining options are "No Deal", to which the current UK parliament appears implacably opposed, a general election, which the Labour Party refuses to countenance, or the formulation of a laughably entitled "government of national unity", created solely for the purpose of preventing Brexit altogether.

Or can Prime Minister Johnson come up with something else ?

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