Friday 9 August 2019

WILL BREXIT EVER HAPPEN ?

I find it amazing that those who want to keep the United Kingdom tied to the European Union consider ignoring the result of the 2016 referendum, ignoring the manifesto pledges of both major parties at the time of the 2017 general election and ignoring that they voted heavily in favour of implementing 'Article 50' all to be perfectly constitutional and democratic, while a Prime Minister attempting to enforce all of these is the opposite.

The general rumpus issuing from the anti-Brexit brigade is becoming almost surreal. The de facto leader of the Labour opposition is now clearly John McDonnell, with Jeremy Corbyn nowhere to be seen or heard. It is McDonnell who is fronting all of the major Labour Party anti-Brexit headlines while Corbyn remains in the shadows, emerging only rarely to show that he's still around; his dislike for the policy now being pursued by his party is palpable. 

Boris Johnson is pressing on with his plan for achieving Brexit by 31st October come what may, whatever that plan actually is. His opponents are chattering about stopping him, at all costs, even at the cost of bringing down the government, though Johnson appears to be indicating that even this won't stop him. Talk of a constitutional crisis abounds and the role of the Queen is being openly discussed. 

For the moment, Parliament is enjoying its summer recess and won't reassemble until 3rd September which, incidenatlly, is the day the UK declared war on Germany in 1939 - might we be in for something similar albeit 80 years on ? It is expected that there will be only a very short period of activity before MPs head off again, this time for their conferences which will see them away from Parliament until around 7th October, unless the conference season is postponed which has been suggested as a possibility by some anti-Brexiteers. However, assuming that things go ahead as already planned, MPs have about 8 or 9 sitting days in September in which to do anything meaningful before Brexit becomes a virtual inevitability. Leaving things until after the conference season is simply too late as, even if a no confidence motion was to be passed, Prime Minister Johnson would have 2 weeks in which to try to overturn it which would take us to about 21st October (another military date, being Trafalgar Day) A general election being called then would see Parliament prorogued and 31st October would come and go with the law as it stands meaning that the UK would leave the EU on that date; the election in mid-November would be an irrelevance as well as probably being a cold and wet one.

It looks to me as though the brief session in September might well be tempestuous and there must be a chance that the conference recess will be postponed. Then again, if Prime Minister Johnson can survive that period and conferences go ahead as planned, November 1st might well be a day of national celebration and even, as Michael Gove has suggested, a special Bank Holiday !

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