At long last there's been real activity on the Brexit front although Prime Minister Johnson's move to prorogue Parliament in the week commencing 9th September has caused much gnashing of teeth amongst the forces of 'Remain'.
To be clear, what Johnson has done is perfectly normal, it's just the timing which has upset his opponents. Under normal circumstances, prorogation at this time would be seen as long overdue, the current parliamentary session having been the longest in many decades. Johnson has acted to end this session and introduce a new raft of proposed legislation, of his own design, through a Queen's speech on 14th October, that will then signal the start of a new session. However, as a by product of this action, parliament will be denied some time that it might otherwise have had to continue its interminable, convoluted and entirely anti-democratic pursuit of a reversal of the result of the 206 Brexit referendum.
Various accusations have been hurled at Johnson by all and sundry. Unsurprisingly, the leaders of the opposition, and pro-EU parties, have thrown their hands up in horror, shouting, "Foul !" in various ways. Speaker Bercow, notwithstanding his own highly contentious approach, has accused Johnson of perpetrating a 'constitutional outrage' and others are attempting to challenge the move in the courts. Given that the prorogation has been granted by the Queen, who must surely have been given the best possible legal advice before assenting to the request, it seems unlikely that such a move will be successful. Remainers are therefore left with little real time in which to prevent Mr Johnson from carrying out his pledge to leave separate the United Kingdom from the European Union on 31st October.
Hold on. Remainers are complaining that they will now have no time to debate and parliament will have no time to let its views be known ? Really ? Since the referendum in June 2016, more than 3 years has passed during which time Remainers have surely had more than enough time to let the rest of us have the benefit of their wisdom; parliament has held endless debates and held many votes on many proposals, ideas, options and possibilities, to very little end. Now, 166 weeks after the referendum and with just 9 weeks to go to the latest deadline, they still want more time - to do what ?
The answer to that particular question is obvious - they simply want to prevent Brexit from ever happening.
If time was such a problem, parliamentarians could have voted to shorten, or cancel, their summer recess which began on 25th July and doesn't end until 3rd September, but they did not. They could have voted to cancel their planned recess for the conference season, another 3 or 4 weeks of wasted time, but they did not. Instead, they waited and debated, procrastinated and waffled, took their holidays as normal and hoped that Brexit would just go away. It has not and now its opponents, having previously used every trick in the book unsuccessfully, have worked themselves up into a phony rage like spoilt children denied yet another go on the merry-go-round. They refuse to accept that time is up.
Next Tuesday, 3rd September, parliament will reassemble. The Chancellor of the Exchequer, Sajid Javid, will present his spending statement which will then be debated. At some point on Wednesday or Thursday, opponents of Brexit may try to introduce some wrecking measures, a bill to prevent Brexit or a vote of no confidence in the government; on Friday afternoon, members will wander off for the weekend. On the 9th they'll all come back from their constituencies for a couple of days before prorogation takes effect, possibly on 10th or 11th, but certainly by 13th, unless legal action prevents it, which seems highly unlikely. Any vote of no confidence will have little immediate effect as the Prime Minister has 2 weeks in which to have it reversed by a second such vote and, with parliament prorogued, that will not be possible. Any such vote would have to be postponed until after the opening of the new session and Queen's speech on 14th October.
Between the Queen's speech and 31st October there will be a maximum of 14 days for debate and action. Several days will be taken up with debate on the speech itself and the time available for Remainers to do anything will be very limited. A vote of no confidence could simply see the government resign and call a general election, which would not take place until well into November, by when Brexit would be have happened. The introduction of preventative legislation would be possible but would there be time ? Might there be, as some have suggested, more urgency in Brussels and a greater realisation that their needs to be some movement if 'No Deal' is to be avoided ?
Deal or No Deal, that is the question. The cards have been dealt, but who has the trump hand ? How the game finally plays out has still to be seen.
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