Thinking more about the events occurring in Syria, I've begun to wonder whether comparison with the Cuban missiles crisis of 1962 is wholly appropriate.
In 1962, the US President was John Kennedy, a very flawed man but not an unpredictable one; neither was he a 'one man band'. Similarly, the Russian leader, Nikita Khrushchev, was a seasoned politician who had spent many years rising through the ranks of the communist regime. Neither Kennedy nor Khrushchev was likely to make a truly rash decision and, in the end, sense prevailed and Khrushchev withdrew his missiles.
Contrasting that with today is worrying. In Donald Trump, the USA has probably the most unpredictable and arrogant President of modern times while, in Russia, Vladimir Putin is vain and arrogant as well as being a serious bully and tyrant set on re-establishing Russia as a major world power. Neither of these men will want to be seen to back down, so what will happen ?
Clearly, the Russians will respond to the West's bombing raids though their response could be diplomatic rather than military; perhaps we are in for some more diplomatic expulsions. Alternatively, might President Putin choose to launch his own assault elsewhere, maybe another threat towards Ukraine or by massing troops on the borders of the Baltic states. Whatever Putin decides to do is unlikely to reduce the current tensions and whatever he does is likely to result in more bombast from his US counterpart.
The next few days and weeks may well see the development of the most frightening scenario than has existed since 1945.
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