Saturday 14 April 2018

IS WORLD WAR THREE AROUND THE CORNER ?

The announcement that the USA, UK and France have launched bombing raids on targets in Syria came in the early hours of this morning. The raids were in response to chemical weapons attacks by Syrian government forces on their own civilians and came after attempts to organise an international investigation into events in Syria were vetoed by Russia at the United Nations. That this seriously increases still further the tension that exists between Russia and the Western world hardly needs to be mentioned.

Following on from the attempted murder of Sergei and Yulia Skripal in Salisbury in March and the previous suspected use of chemical weapons by the Syrian government, solidly backed by Russia, matters are now escalating rapidly. Presidents Trump and Macron and Prime Minister May, supported by the EU and NATO, have clearly decided that the situation in Syria is too dire for them not to intervene, regardless of the attitude of the Russian government. Where this will lead is anyone's guess.

Way back in 1962, there was a 'stand off' between President Kennedy and the then Russian leader, Nikita Khrushchev over the location of Russian missiles in Cuba. Kennedy stood firm and the missiles were withdrawn, but not before the world came closer to a nuclear war than at any other time. The present crisis in Syria has not yet reached this level but much will depend on the reaction of the Russian President, Vladimir Putin.

Putin, who appears to have considerable public support, is the most powerful Russian leader since the bad old days of the Cold War. His control of the state seems to be total and his ruthless removal of opposition politicians has echoes of the behaviour of the likes of Stalin, Khrushchev and Brezhnev. Putin is a vain man who became a colonel in the Russian secret police, the KGB, before the collapse of the Communist regime. After this, he quickly moved into the political sphere and has been the effective dictator of Russia since 2000; he has become increasingly bellicose and most recently has provided support to the brutal regime of President Assad in Syria. Unsurprisingly, the Russian ambassador to the US has said that the attack on its ally "will not be left without consequences".

Will Putin back down and risk losing face ? Will he really launch any form of military response against the Western states involved in the attacks ? Is it possible that the world is on the verge of an all-out war for the first time in more than 70 years ? With the Russians carrying out a nerve agent attack on the streets of Britain and supporting chemical weapons attacks in Syria while vetoing diplomatic attempts to investigate these appalling incidents, it suggests that they are determined to test the resolve of the West.

Now, the West has responded and the next move is up to Putin. Let's hope that he shows at least some semblance of sense and pulls back from the brink.

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