Although, as every financial adviser is required to say 'past performance is not a guarantee of future performance', it is worth considering history when it comes to choosing governments.
In 1964, after 13 years of Conservative government, the electorate voted for a change and chose to be ruled by Harold Wilson's Labour party. The Conservatives had left behind them a reasonably stable country though they had, perhaps, rather run out of steam; nonetheless, they had begun the process of giving independence to many countries of the old Empire and had thus taken on a strongly reformist role whose ramifications we still feel today.
Labour, while being supportive of breaking up the Empire, also seemed intent on handing control of the country to the Trades' Unions. Increasingly left-wing policies introduced by the likes of Tony Benn and Barbara Castle saw the beginnings of the almost total demise of our traditional industries - steel manufacture, car making, ship building and coal mining. Increasing union domination saw productivity collapse beneath the weight of ludicrous and destructive restrictive working practices, while wages increased beyond the ability of industries to pay them without eventually introducing significant price rises. The economy went into decline and the pound was devalued, though many of the people may well have been more interested in the excitement generated by the 'Swinging 60s'; sadly, this was transitory and the realities of life would soon become apparent.
Although 1970 saw a brief interlude with the surprise return of a Conservative government under the arch Europhile Ted Heath, high inflation and a multitude of strikes, a legacy of the Labour years, culminated in power cuts and the 'three day week'. Labour, and Harold Wilson, returned to power in 1974 and remained in office, with Wilson replaced by Jim Callaghan in 1976, until 1979. By then, the Trades Unions were in almost total control; some people had found themselves paying tax at 98% on part of their income, the government had been forced to beg for support from the International Monetary Fund to avoid effective bankruptcy and we were visited by the appalling 'Winter of Discontent' when rubbish was piled high on the streets and bodies remained unburied, all due to industrial action.
Labour were soundly beaten at the general election in 1979 and so began 18 years of Conservative government. During this time the Trades Unions were brought to heal though little could be done to negate the ravages of the past; coal mining, steel manufacturing, ship building and car making were reduced to minor side lines of the economy. However, the country did begin to become more prosperous, taxes were reduced, more people were enabled to buy their own homes and the economy thrived. The Falklands War was dealt with in stern fashion and it was not until the attempted introduction of a so-called 'poll tax' that the government found itself in real difficulties. After the succession of John Major to the Premiership, things were certainly more problematic as various factions vied for control of the party but withdrawal from the catastrophic European Exchange Rate Mechanism was eventually managed successfully, if not without some pain, and by 1997 the country was on a sound financial footing.
However, after 18 years of government by one party, the electorate wanted a change and voted for the populist approach of Tony Blair's Labour party. The succeeding 10 years saw huge amounts of money thrown at public services and an assortment of popular 'family orientated' measures. Taxes and borrowing were increased in order to support this spending while the banks were increasingly encouraged to lend to individuals and businesses without ensuring adequate security. These policies were also followed by other countries and culminated in the catastrophic financial collapse of 2007-08, from which we are still suffering. Once again, Labour's profligacy had resulted in economic disaster.
The return to power of the Conservatives, initially in coalition with the Liberal Democrats but, from 2015, by themselves has necessarily been a time of retrenchment as the economy has been slowly restored to a semblance of health and the years of excessive borrowing and spending have had to be paid for. We are now faced with a choice between continuing along the path to full economic recovery set out by the Conservatives, including getting out of the money-pit which is the European Union, or returning to the bad old days of tax and spend under what would be the most left-wing government ever to take power in this country.
If the Conservatives are returned at the election there will be a degree of stability; taxes will be controlled and business will thrive. Unemployment is likely to remain at a low level and the economy will grow at a consistent and sustainable rate.
If Jeremy Corbyn's Labour party is returned, there will upheaval; taxes will rise dramatically, the pound will lose value and inflation will 'take off'. Business will suffer and unemployment will most probably begin to increase. The productive economy will shrink even as an already inefficient public sector balloons out of control.
So which is likely to be the better choice ?
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