Monday 2 March 2020

COVID-19 v THE FLOODS : WHICH NEEDS COBRA ?

In recent weeks we've been subjected to the usual complaints from people who've found themselves in awkward situations. The complaints always revolve around a view that it's for someone else, usually the government, to sort their problems out and the media runs around looking for anyone who's anxious to make such a complaint so that they can create a "shock, horror" story out of it all.

In the UK, February was horribly wet. It seemed that the rain never stopped falling and some communities found themselves literally up to their necks in flood waters. While the various government agencies, services and relevant officials did what they could to alleviate things, parts of the media seemed more interested in 2 rather peripheral matters; firstly, why hadn't the Prime Minister visited any of the flood affected areas and secondly, why hadn't he convened a meeting of the government's emergency committee, COBRA. The BBC was particularly eager, it seemed, to find people who would whinge about the first point, while never stopping to ask what good would come from Boris Johnson sloshing around in a variety of large puddles. In truth, there would have been no benefit and he was far better advised to do what he did - keep out of the way and let the experts get on with their work, unencumbered by having to worry about being a nuisance.

On the second point, convening COBRA, again I wonder what that would have achieved. I'd never heard of COBRA, other than the snake, and it appears to be a fairly recent invention, at least in it's modern incarnation. First convened in response to the 1972 miners' strike, and subsequently for various national emergencies, it now seems to have become the knee jerk reaction to every minor event. "My train was late - CONVENE COBRA" seems to be the cry. Of course, the flooding has been disastrous for the affected communities and they are in desperate need of help, which they are receiving and will continue to receive, but what would a meeting of a government committee add to things ? If the people at the top in the Environment Agency and emergency services know what they're doing, the last thing they need is a bunch of politicians and their advisers interfering.

Separately, the COVID-19 virus epidemic has also had people up in arms. Some, trapped on board ships or in foreign hotels have complained that the government has not done enough to rescue them and get them back to the UK. Again, the media and notably the BBC has hunted high and low to find anyone who has been prepared to lodge such a complaint, sympathising with the complainants and ignoring the need for effective quarantine of those who are at risk of infection. In this instance, I've yet to hear anyone argue that the Prime Minister should visit any of those affected but demands that COBRA should be convened and complaints that it has net yet met have been high on the media's agenda. In fact, it seems that there have been several relevant meetings although the Prime Minister has, wisely in my view, not yet been involved, preferring to leave matters in the hands of those whose jobs it is to deal with such things.

However, there is now to be a COBRA meeting which will be chaired by Mr Johnson. Whether it will do anything different from what has been and is still being done is a matter of conjecture although the presence of the Prime Minister will undoubtedly send the media off on a different tack - now, everything that goes wrong will be laid at the PM's door, rightly or wrongly, rather than having no particular home.

The flooding in parts of the west and north of our country is a fact and is a disaster for those affected, but there's very little that can be done to prevent it in the short term. In the medium term, we must stop building new houses in areas that are known to be at risk, and in the longer term, billions of pounds will have to be spent in building barriers, dredging rivers and on other measures but this will take time, probably many years. No number of meetings of COBRA will help and neither will any number of Prime Ministerial visits; such activities are simply froth for the benefit of the media.

Regarding COVID-19, the media headlines seem to be entirely out of line with the actual size and seriousness of the infection. In the UK we currently have, according to today's news, 36 confirmed cases; some European countries, notably Italy, have more but nowhere are there more than a relatively tiny number. China remains the major repository and it now seems to have the outbreak under increasing control. The overall mortality rate is around 2 or 3% and the real risk is confined to those who are elderly and / or already suffering poor health; for the bulk of the population, COVID-19 threatens little more than a "mild cough" according to Matt Hancock, the UK's Secretary of State for Health. 

Obviously there is a need for action to try to prevent this infection from spreading far and wide but the reality is that it's neither more nor less serious than an outbreak of seasonal influenza; it's actually far less dangerous than some previous epidemics of the latter. However, COVID-19 is 'new' and there is no reservoir of immunity meaning that everyone is at risk of infection and the social and economic consequences of a generalised outbreak could be extremely serious. 

And so, the Prime Minister will chair a meeting of COBRA and there'll be plenty of rushing around 'doing things'. In the end, COVID-19 will almost certainly disappear of it's own accord, regardless of what COBRA, the Prime Minister or anyone else does or doesn't do, leaving a messy trail behind it, but ultimately having little lasting effect. 

Unlike the floods. 

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