COVID-19 : HOW SERIOUS IS IT ?

It seems I may well have been wrong about the new coronavirus, COVID-19, although what the published numbers for infections and deaths actually mean is very unclear.

There's no doubt that the virus is highly infectious but the real number of those infected both in the UK and elsewhere is unknown. While numbers of those diagnosed are being published daily, it's important to recognize that many people may have had mild symptoms which they've assumed to be no more than a normal cough or cold; if they haven't been tested for the COVID -19 virus, they won't be in the numbers. It is also the case that the people most likely to have been tested are those who are most at risk - those who are elderly, have other serious underlying health issues and have been admitted to hospital for reasons which may not have been due to the viral infection but, when tested, were discovered to be positive for it.

The clear implication is that the true number of those infected is probably much higher than the published number and that the current statistics are almost certainly misleading, being biased towards those who have experienced more severe symptoms. However, it's also clear that the vast majority of those who become infected will experience symptoms which are annoying and unpleasant rather than dangerous, with even the published numbers indicating that at least 80% of people will suffer only mild symptoms and that the mortality rate, currently around 2-3% in the UK, will eventually turn out to be much lower. Again, the numbers are almost certainly misleading.

In the UK, well over 25,000 people have been tested and 460 have been found to have the infection, 8 of whom have died, meaning that some 98% of those tested did NOT have the virus but had normal symptoms of a cough or cold. The 8 who have been recorded as dying were all in their later years and all had what are described as serious underlying health conditions; did they really die from the effects of COVID-19 or were their deaths simply hastened by it ? In other words, are the numbers of deaths attributed to the virus not being overstated ? The current mortality rate of around 2%, higher in other countries but with the same proviso, is almost certainly a gross over-estimate.

None of this is intended to minimise the severity of the COVID-19 epidemic or to minimise its impact around the world, but it is necessary to consider what the published numbers really indicate.The virus is a new one and many people will become infected, either in the next few weeks and months or, perhaps, in future years. The real impact will be felt in the short term as thousands, even millions, may become ill for a week or 2 and need time away from work or other duties and responsibilities which will cause serious difficulties socially and economically. However, almost all of these people will recover and then be immune to further infection. 

The government is doing what it can to mitigate the economic effects and is trying to ensure that the NHS can cope with the expected deluge of more seriously ill patients. It is attempting to manage the spread of the virus although how successful this will be is anyone's guess. The bottom line is that we are facing at least a few months of disruption to normal life, disruption which may well result in long term effects to our economy but, ultimately, will impact very little on the general well-being of the vast majority of the population.