To answer a question I asked only a few days ago, it seems that the coronavirus COVID-19 epidemic is very serious indeed or, at least, it's overall effects are.
COVID-19 appears to be a highly communicable virus that may be fatal for a small number of those infected. That said, around 97% of those tested in the UK to date have proved not to be infected and only 2 or 3% of those infected have so far died, which makes me wonder why they were tested at all and also raises questions in my mind about the real communicability and lethality of the virus. However, because this is a new virus there is little or no immunity within human populations anywhere in the world and anyone with a cough, fever or sniffle is immediately assumed to be a potential victim, whether or not they really are.
Rather than the virus itself, the real problems arise from the knock-on effects and ensuing panic. It's certainly true that if there is a major outbreak with tens, or hundreds, of thousands of people needing hospitalisation, our NHS will be overwhelmed and unable to cope. In order to try to avoid such an outcome, the government, along with others around the world, is attempting to manage the epidemic in such a way as to spread the effects across a longer period of time, thus reducing its peak and making it easier to cope with. While this makes some sense, it also comes with its own potentially catastrophic effects.
By closing down all but essential business and travel, we enter the realms of global economic melt down. Without vast amounts of financial support, businesses will collapse, workers will lose their jobs, bills will go unpaid; there will be no food on the table or power for hot water, heating and lighting, indeed there may well be no houses within which to place the tables or lights. In recognition of this horrendous scenario, stock markets have already suffered calamitous falls, not only wiping hundreds of billions of pounds, Euros, dollars and the rest off people's current savings but also off their future pensions. Additionally, the stock market falls foretell substantially reduced company profits and dividends for many years to come, compounding the effects on savings and pensions. House prices may well follow the stock market as potential purchasers find themselves with no jobs and no money; small business owners, those running pubs, clubs, restaurants and the like, as well as a multitude of local artisans may be left high and dry with demand for their services reduced to a trickle by a population terrified of catching the virus.
Is all of this justified ? Is the government following the right path or is it actually creating far more panic than is justified ? I have no idea. What I can say is that the economic effects of the actions being taken around the world will be utterly catastrophic for decades to come; those who continue to whinge about 'austerity' "ain't seen nothing yet". Fanciful nonsense emanating from organisations desperate to keep sporting activities going can't disguise the fact that life is unlikely to return to anything approximating to 'normal' for several months, quite possibly until next year; there will be no quick resumption of Premier League football, no Wimbledon, no Royal Ascot, no Open Golf, or cricket season. 2020 will be written off as the YEAR OF THE VIRUS, the year when the world stopped turning.
We will recover, slowly and over a prolonged number of years but how long will it be before we all get back to using public transport, airlines and public venues without looking over our shoulders at that person behind us with a cough ? How long will it be before we mix happily in crowds again ? Most of all, how will all this disruption affect the ways in which we live our lives in the future ? Will we become more insular and isolated, fearing to leave the safety of our homes ? Will we, in fact, simply become used to the self-isolation imposed by the government and come to prefer it to our former existence ?
This is not Spanish Flu of 1918/19. The world is a very different place to that of the years immediately following the First World War. Hopes and expectations are very different from those of the people 100 years ago. How we all behave once the epidemic is over will be very different from the way people behaved in the aftermath of Spanish Flu, a time when most people were poor, life was cheap and expectations were low. Now, most people are not poor, life is highly valued and expectations are sky high.
I can feel many years of turmoil approaching. Revolution, dictatorships, communism. If there was anywhere to run and hide, I'd be there, but there isn't. This is a crisis for the whole world, with nowhere safe.
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