Wednesday 9 November 2016

TRUMP - MAY : A PARALLEL FOR REAGAN - THATCHER ?


With the election of Donald trump as the next President of the United States, we have a most timely and unexpected parallel.

Back in 1979, Conservative Margaret Thatcher became the first female Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and, a few months later, the voters of the United States elected the former film star, Republican Ronald Reagan, to be its next President. The following years saw the forging of a stronger-than-ever relationship between both the countries and their leaders, as well as huge changes in both economies.

Roll forward 37 years. A few months ago, Conservative Theresa May most unexpectedly became the second female Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and, today, Republican Donald Trump, a businessman but also a television star and personality, has been elected as the next President of the United States. Can we now look forward to the type of UK-USA relationship that existed in the Thatcher-Reagan era ?

We already know that Trump is not as keen on the European Union as his predecessor or opponent, but has made encouraging noises about a future trading relationship with the UK, in stark contrast to others. Several European politicians have chosen to greet Trump's election with highly guarded and even hostile remarks, while Theresa May has been much more circumspect and done nothing other than congratulate him and say that she looks forward to meeting him. Good for her,

The London stock market has been mildly positive so far and this must be a good sign. What price a new and extra-special relationship between the UK and USA, coupled with the breakup of the European Union ? Add in the prospect of elections in France and Germany next year and  could we actually be in for a period of dramatic political and economic change ?

No comments:

Post a Comment