BARNIER SOFTENS TONE, TURMOIL AWAITS MAY.

With Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit proposals under attack from all sides, the European Union's chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, seems to be softening his position. 

Barnier's approach to the negotiations has been to demand that the UK complies with every EU requirement while rejecting everything that the UK itself puts forward. Thus far, he's adopted the position of an overlord, while the UK has acted like a subservient vassal. However, might it now be that the stronger tone adopted by the likes of Boris Johnson and Steve Baker, allied to Mrs May's difficulties and the rapid approach of the point of no return, have persuaded Mr Barnier that he'd better be a bit more accommodating or risk a 'No Deal' outcome ?

Barnier has been careful to say that there are still points of difference to be resolved but he's also said that a deal could be reached in a matter of a few weeks if both sides are "realistic"; one has to presume that by "realistic", he means if the UK kowtows to EU demands, although it could also be a veiled warning to EU leaders. Theresa May's position is fragile and her 'Chequers Deal' could well find itself rejected by the House of Commons, in which case 'No Deal' would become the only real option left. May would go and Boris Johnson, or another confirmed Brexiteer, could find himself in No. 10. How would the EU like that ?

A Brexiteer-led government would undoubtedly pursue policies which the EU would find difficult to swallow - free trade, lower taxes, attractive offers to large companies and so on. In order to avoid such an outcome, the EU now finds itself needing to offer support to Mrs May, ridiculous though that may seem. However, the more the EU supports Mrs May, the weaker her position will become with members of her own party and the Brexiteers in particular.

The Conservative Party conference begins on 30th September and the terms of a deal, if one is reached, will have to be put before Parliament not long after that, perhaps in early November. What are the odds that Mrs May will survive the turmoil that these events will bring ?