Friday 9 June 2017

ELECTION RESULT SERVES NO ONE.

Well, well, well !

In a catastrophic result for the Conservatives, they've lost their majority when they expected to increase it significantly. It seems that the people have done their thinking and decided that they don't much like Theresa May and the Conservatives, while many more than was expected decided that they did rather like Jeremy Corbyn's offering of 'tax, tax, tax, spend, spend, spend'. The polls were mostly wrong, again.

There is no doubt that Corbyn ran an effective campaign with many frankly populist policies; he also seems to have managed to get a substantial number of younger voters to support him and the final outcome of around 41% of the vote is dramatically higher than the opinion polls were indicating throughout the campaign period. Corbyn's success may also owe something to him being a true socialist rather than a 'middle-of-the-road, politician; he may have galvanised many of the traditional Labour supporters who have drifted away from the Party in recent years as it became more centrist in approach.

On the Conservative side, 44% of the votes would normally have produced a healthy majority in Parliament but, in this extraordinary election, it's only resulted in the Conservatives being the largest party; while they seem likely to be able to remain in office with the support of the Democratic Unionists from Ulster, it will be far from straightforward and policies will have to be watered down, perhaps significantly in some cases.

Theresa May's position has been seriously weakened though the expectation is that she will remain as Prime Minister. However, she has suffered a huge blow and must carry much of the blame for this wholly unexpected result. Six weeks ago, the Conservatives were apparently heading for a landslide victory but a quite appalling campaign all but destroyed them; the furore over the funding of social care, issues over the NHS and a crazy policy to replace free school dinners with free school breakfasts, the policy to meddle with the 'Winter Fuel Allowance' and May's refusal to appear in the televised 'Leaders' Debate', as well as her stuttering performance on the social issues. Indeed, the initial approach of concentrating the campaign on Theresa May, rather than on the Party, and the absence of other major figures such as Boris Johnson and Liam Fox from the frontline seems to have been a huge mistake. It also seems certain that the terrorist attacks in Manchester and London allied to Labour's promise to put more police on the streets caused many to turn to Labour.

The Conservative miscalculation is undoubtedly the worst since February 1974 when Ted Heath called an election expecting the country to support his stand against the miners; on that occasion, the country gave Heath the elbow and Labour actually ended up forming a minority government; they then went to the country again a few months later to give them a majority and 5 years in power which ultimately produced chaos and Margaret Thatcher.

What will happen next is anyone's guess. It is possible that the Conservatives could remain in office for a full 5 years though their position is obviously highly vulnerable; 1 or 2 by-election losses could easily prove fatal, although the '5 Year Parliament Act' could now act in their favour. It will be difficult to put through their manifesto, if not impossible, and 'Brexit' negotiations will certainly be more problematic. Theresa May, herself, seems very unlikely to be able to survive a full 5 years and there must be a possibility of another election within the next 2 years; if that happens, a Labour government under Jeremy Corbyn becomes a distinct possibility.

Whatever the eventual outcome, this result serves no one. It is disastrous for the Conservatives and could become catastrophic for the country if Corbyn ever gets into power. Those who voted for Corbyn this time didn't get what they wished for; next time they may well get their wish but, as is often said, 'you should be very careful what you wish for as you may get it'.

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