PROJECT FEAR REARS ITS UGLY HEAD AGAIN.

And here we go again !

Today, both the UK Treasury and Bank of England have produced some new figures and predictions about the potential effects of Brexit. SURPRISE, SURPRISE ! Both august bodies have said that the UK will suffer potentially severe economic consequences from Brexit OVER THE NEXT 15 YEARS !

When, if ever, has either the Treasury or Bank of England got forecasts for the next couple of years right, let alone over a period of 15 years. Before the referendum of 2016 both organisations made dire predictions should the population be stupid enough to vote to leave the European Union - the pound would collapse, the stock market would tumble, house prices would crash, inflation and interest rates would soar, etc. etc. Which of these was proved right ? NONE !

Now, the Bank is repeating its warnings of 2 years ago - why should they be any more right today than they were in 2016 ? In arriving at their predictions, both the Bank and the Treasury have made various assumptions but how can they possibly make any valid assumptions about the world 15 years from now ? How, indeed, can they make any valid assumptions about the world 3 or 4 years from now ?

With political uncertainty rife across Europe and in the US, with China increasingly challenging the economic domination of the West and Russia ploughing its own furrow of militaristic posturing, we cannot, with any certainty, even know what the world will be like in 2019, let alone in 2034. The one thing that is very clear is that 'Project Fear' remains in full swing and that the people of the UK are being readied for either another referendum or a general election, which those of the liberal elite who run things expect to result in a reversal of the decision taken in 2016. 

Don't let the men, and women, in grey suits who appear to be so knowledgeable and certain, fool you. They have one aim in mind and they will do and say anything to achieve it. They want the UK to be a good little servile nation, do as it's told and decide to stay in the EU. 

Don't let it happen.

WHAT PRICE BREXIT NOW ?

It seems that the UK's hopes of leaving the European Union any time soon are receding into the distance. No one likes Mrs May's deal and her chances of gaining Parliamentary approval for it appear remote. Indeed, her chances of remaining in office are shrinking by the day. Nonetheless, she pushes on to what looks like certain disaster.

From the very beginning the government's approach to Brexit was weak. Rather than take the initiative and tell the EU what it wanted, it allowed the EU to dictate terms from the outset. Inevitably,  the resulting 'deal' is heavily weighted against the UK and in favour of the EU. Not only will the UK remain tied to the EU during a transition period, which could be extended, but even after this ends it could still be locked into the farcical arrangement of 'the backstop', in which the UK would be out of the EU but wholly subservient to it.

Today, Philip Hammond, Chancellor of the Exchequer, has been talking about yet more economic analyses which apparently show that the UK will be poorer as a result of Brexit; given the shockingly poor history of such analyses and projections over a period of many years, their reliability must be in question and yet still they are produced. Although Mr Hammond claims to be a supporter of Mrs May's deal, he was and undoubtedly still is, a 'Remainer' and has a vested interest in letting us all know about the potentially dire economic consequences of Brexit, however debatable the forecasts may be. 

Mr Hammond's latest intervention is nothing more nor less than the latest brick in the wall of 'Project Fear'. No matter what his words appear to say, he is, in truth, arguing for staying in the EU, or, at least, remaining very closely tied to it. With there being very little chance of Mrs May's plan gaining approval, politicians have moved rapidly on to the next stage of the process; will it be another referendum or a General Election ? Either way, Mrs May is dead in the water and her 'colleagues' are circling, positioning themselves for the final strike and succession to the throne.

There can be no doubt that 'Project Fear' has won and that Mrs May, intentionally, as a result of incompetence or accidentally, will be the biggest political loser. However, the real losers will be the 17.4 million people who voted to leave the EU back in June 2016. There will be a second referendum which will be won for 'Remain' by the disenchantment, apathy and disgust of voters, exactly as the EU has wanted all along.

Democracy in the UK is dead and the EU will have its corrupt, bureaucratic way.

GIBRALTAR IS BRITISH, NOW AND FOREVER.

As an agreement on a deal for Brexit, fudged and unsatisfactory though it is, is just about ready for final approval, the Spanish government has come up with new demands about the British territory of Gibraltar. In short, the Spanish are threatening to withhold their approval unless the UK agrees to giving Spain a guarantee of a special say in any arrangements regarding Gibraltar and its future.

What a bloody cheek !!

Gibraltar has been a British territory for more than 300 years and, while Spain may not like it, its people have no desire to be Spanish. The Spanish stance is little different to that adopted by Argentina over the Falkland Islands or other similar disputes that arise from time to time. What the Spanish reaction be, for example, if Portugal laid claim to its former North African colony of Ceuta which was ceded to Spain in 1668 ?

Quite clearly, the Spanish government has seem an opportunity to use Brexit for its own nationalistic purposes, just as the government in Dublin has done. If Mrs May does anything other than tell the Spanish to get lost, she will have failed the UK, Gibraltar, and everyone who values democracy.

NOW EU GOES AFTER GIBRALTAR AND OUR FISH !

Despite all of the recent huffing and puffing over the terms of the proposed 'Brexit deal', not to mention Theresa May's assurances that the deal was effectively sealed in stone, it's now clear that it isn't.

After further talks today, it's being reported that questions still remain over fishing rights and the position of Gibraltar and it's now being said that there will be further last minute discussions on Saturday in an attempt to sign something off in time for the meeting of EU representatives on Sunday. The UK is being pressured to make further concessions while the EU insists that there can be no movement from there side.

As an independent nation, the UK will be sovereign over its territorial waters and for the EU to expect otherwise is unacceptable. If they want to include fishing rights in future trade\ discussions, fine, but to suddenly raise this an issue for the withdrawal agreement cannot be right. As for the position of Gibraltar, Spain is now trying to use this as a bargaining chip for its own nationalistic purposes and should be slapped down by the EU hierarchy; fat chance of that happening as the EU hierarchy appears to be quite happy to use anything that can be dredged up in its determination to force the UK to the brink.

Once again, Theresa May is to be put to the test. Will she have the gumption to tell the EU that enough is enough and there's no more to give, or will she just crumble, as she has done all along ? Brexiteers will be on the look out for any further weakness and this time their position may be rather stronger than it turned out to be last week. Giving way on fishing rights will not be well received and ceding any part of Gibraltar's sovereignty to Spain may well raise more than a few hackles at home.

It looks like being a fun weekend.

WHAT WOULD CHANGING PM ACHIEVE ?

While holding a vote of confidence in Theresa May as leader of the Conservative Party may be increasingly likely, I wonder what it would achieve.

If Mrs May wins the vote, she will undoubtedly remain as party leader and Prime Minister, even if there is a substantial number of votes against her. If she loses such a vote, the party would then be left with the task of finding a new leader at a most difficult time; indeed, who would want the job, given that the scope for either amending Mrs May's draft Brexit agreement is infinitesimal and that the chances of getting the agreement approved by Parliament even less ?

Michael Gove's decision not to resign from the cabinet, following on from his reported rejection of the job of Brexit Secretary seems to suggest that he, at least, is biding his time. Remaining in the cabinet suggests a degree of loyalty to both party and leader, and avoids a charge of being a wrecker.  Gove's decision may also indicate that he does not believe that a confidence vote will produce a change of leader - yet - and, in the eyes of fellow party members, he may well have improved his chances of succeeding to the top job in due course. 

Changing the leader will not change the situation. Mrs May's representatives have agreed a draft plan with representatives of the European Union and it seems that the EU will not accept anything other than cosmetic changes to that plan. At the same time, the plan seems unlikely to prove acceptable to the UK Parliament. To say that the Prime Minister is 'between a rock and a hard place' is an extreme understatement, so why would anyone want to replace her ? Basically, those who hanker after her job would probably be far better off if they simply wait for things to develop further.

Deal or No Deal ? Perhaps we should ask Noel Edmonds to officiate !

IS BREXIT 'DEAL' HEADING FOR THE ROCKS ALREADY ?

-------  and it looks as though the end may be fast approaching.

The Northern Ireland minister, Shailesh Vara, had already resigned in protest at Mrs May's Brexit proposals and now the Brexit Secretary, Dominic Raab, has also walked away. In his resignation letter, Raab pointed at the potential for EU domination over the UK to continue indefinitely and also the threat to the integrity of the UK itself as critical issues. He also referred to the disparity between the proposed deal and what was promised in the last Conservative election manifesto.

Hot on the heels of Raab's resignation, Environment Secretary Michael Gove has cancelled a planned trip to a farming conference in Yorkshire - is he also on the point of quitting his post ? At the same time, arch-Europhile Anna Soubry, a sheep in wolf's clothing if ever there was one, has tweeted to say a) that Raab cynically planned his resignation to make the headlines, b) that the PM must now be considering her position and that we need a 'Government of National Unity' and c) there should be a 'people's vote. Can she really be serious ? This is a Conservative Member of Parliament calling for Jeremy Corbyn to be brought into government !!

There is no doubt that the pack is circling, in all directions, but apparently Mrs May still intends addressing Parliament later this morning. God Help Her !

BREXIT NOW IN THE LAP OF THE GODS !

Judging by the furore, Mrs May's Brexit deal is going to have a tough time getting through Parliament.

Although it was approved at a meeting of the lengthy Cabinet yesterday, the deal cobbled together between Mrs May's lieutenants and representatives of the European Union seems to be on very shaky ground. It's clear that some members of the Cabinet, perhaps as many as 9 or 10, were very unhappy and that the agreement was 'collective' rather than unanimous or even enthusiastic. Arlene Foster of the Democratic Unionists has indicated that her party is unlikely to find the deal acceptable, the Scottish Nationalists have always been clear that they will vote against anything that's put forward and the Labour Party is also plainly opposed for its own political reasons as well as anything else. Given that a significant number of Conservatives, both Brexiteers and Remainers, have indicated that they are likely to vote against the proposals, the chances of the Prime Minister's plan being approved by Parliament seem to be vanishingly small.

That said, politics is a pretty strange game and anything is still possible. The DUP may be cajoled into supporting the plan in order to avoid the spectre of a general election and a Jeremy Corbyn-led government; the Conservative opponents likewise, and there are still a few on the Labour benches who have independent minds and may well vote with Mrs May, also as much to avoid Corbyn gaining power as being in favour of Conservative proposals. All of this also ignores the possibility that any one of the remaining 27 member states of the European Union could decide to reject the deal when it's put to them at a meeting on 25th November.

Where will it all end ?