While holding a vote of confidence in Theresa May as leader of the Conservative Party may be increasingly likely, I wonder what it would achieve.
If Mrs May wins the vote, she will undoubtedly remain as party leader and Prime Minister, even if there is a substantial number of votes against her. If she loses such a vote, the party would then be left with the task of finding a new leader at a most difficult time; indeed, who would want the job, given that the scope for either amending Mrs May's draft Brexit agreement is infinitesimal and that the chances of getting the agreement approved by Parliament even less ?
Michael Gove's decision not to resign from the cabinet, following on from his reported rejection of the job of Brexit Secretary seems to suggest that he, at least, is biding his time. Remaining in the cabinet suggests a degree of loyalty to both party and leader, and avoids a charge of being a wrecker. Gove's decision may also indicate that he does not believe that a confidence vote will produce a change of leader - yet - and, in the eyes of fellow party members, he may well have improved his chances of succeeding to the top job in due course.
Changing the leader will not change the situation. Mrs May's representatives have agreed a draft plan with representatives of the European Union and it seems that the EU will not accept anything other than cosmetic changes to that plan. At the same time, the plan seems unlikely to prove acceptable to the UK Parliament. To say that the Prime Minister is 'between a rock and a hard place' is an extreme understatement, so why would anyone want to replace her ? Basically, those who hanker after her job would probably be far better off if they simply wait for things to develop further.
Deal or No Deal ? Perhaps we should ask Noel Edmonds to officiate !
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