As the COVID-19 saga continues, I am increasingly concerned that no one really knows the extent of the epidemic nor its true severity. The statistics published by Public Health England and the Office for National Statistics have been used to justify assorted government actions but have also been subject to numerous revisions and re-presentations.
The figures originally published for the number of people tested were found to be of dubious quality and were temporarily suspended; now they have vanished altogether. The PHE figures for the number of proven cases have been revised several times and bear no relation to the number of estimated cases published by the ONS. Nowhere is there any reference to the number of reported cases being at least partially dependent upon the actual number of people tested. The number of deaths as reported by PHE have been found to be entirely unreliable, with all deaths of people who had tested positive at any time being included, regardless of how long before death the test had been conducted and what the actual cause of death had been; in fact, anyone who'd had a positive test but been killed by a runaway bus would have been included as a COVID-19 related death.
Most recently, the 'Coronavirus Dashboard', via which the ONS has been publishing national summaries, has been revamped in such a way that there is no way of reconciling parts of it with its earlier incarnation. The previously available daily analysis by local authority areas has been removed and replaced by what is claimed to be a more detailed analysis; in fact, this 'Middle Layer Super Output Area' (MSOA) analysis makes comparison with the earlier publications impossible as all daily instances of less than 2 cases being reported in each area are excluded - is this not utterly ludicrous ? Additionally, it also means that the MSOA figures cannot be reconciled with the higher level local authority (LTUA & UTLA) level figures.
It seems clear that those who are producing and presenting these assorted statistics have no idea what they are doing and certainly must be utterly oblivious as to what is needed and how they may be used. The shocking result is that the numbers are largely meaningless, often being confusing, misleading and even contradictory. I won't even get to the mystical 'R' number, which seems to be a work of utter fiction, designed principally to provide support for at least some of the government's actions.
These highly suspect statistics have been used to justify an almost complete shutdown of normal life and now to justify the wearing of masks in shops, cinemas, museums and assorted other places by a frightened population. At the same time, we now are encouraged to visit pubs and restaurants willy-nilly and without any face coverings, even though such visits are far more likely to bring us into closer and longer contact with others than the occasional trips to the supermarket. If this isn't confused and contradictory, I don't know what is.
Never has the phrase 'lies, damned lies and statistics' been of more relevance and never have statistics been used in such haphazard and illogical manner. The truth is that no one, including all the experts who regularly offer advice to the government and anyone else who'll listen, has a clue what is really going on or what is the best course of action. It's all very much a case of "suck it and see", followed by a large dose of "grin and bear it".
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