Sunday 5 July 2020

COVID-19 : EXPERTS ARE EVERYWHERE ; BORIS NEED CONTROL.

I'm confused.

Admittedly the data being published by the government on the vexed subject of COVID-19 has been, to say the least, 'iffy'; in fact it's been downright rubbish as the most recent revision to the numbers has proven. Nonetheless, the claims of opponents of the government's position are no less open to what can only be termed ridiculed.

The rather haughtily named Independent SAGE' a group of scientists who believe they have greater wisdom than the equally eminent mob currently advising the government,  have claimed, via their chairman, David King, that the government's current strategy will lead to 27,000 excess deaths by April 2100 - sounds terrible, doesn't it ?

Hold on a moment. There are 500,000 - 600,000 deaths in the UK every year. This number fluctuates and may be better or worse; a bad epidemic of influenza might make it significantly worse and, for instance, some 78,000 deaths were attributed to the Hong Kong 'flu of 1978/79, way in excess of the usual number of expected deaths from 'flu at that time and, incidentally, of the number likely to die from COVID-19; I don't remember aby lockdowns or national emergencies back the,

Now if we consider the usual likely range of such statistics, that is 5% either side of the central point . 5% of 550,000 is, oh how odd,  27,500.  In other words, the claimed excess deaths from COVID -19 due to government action, or inaction, is within the normally expected of statistical variation. The claim is spurious and utterly unprovable, unless the epidemic really does take off and the numbers affected rise much more dramatically.

The biggest worry is that scientists who should know better, led by David King, appear to be trying to spread anti-government propaganda, dressed up as 'better science' than that being followed by their former paymasters. That this has a nasty smell to it is blatantly obvious.  Of course there are different views regarding the road that the government should follow but it is following the one that makes most sense given the demands of health and economy - it benefits no one to have a second bunch of academics claiming superior intelligence, or knowledge, or whatever, going off in a different direction and being given serious media exposure to boot.

COVID-19 is a serious problem, though much more so for some than for others, and the real issue is to how to kill it off.  Arguments about possible numbers of deaths over the next year are entirely academic. What is needed is an approach which recognises that there must be a limit to the health and safety mania that currently pervades our world and an acceptance that risk is a part of life. It seems that some are utterly unwilling to accept such an attitude and these are, presumably, the same people who litter our streets with every type of 'traffic calming' nonsense imaginable, to very little effect.

We need strong leadership, the type that has been lacking since Maggie Thatcher took the reins. Boris Johnson has the credentials but does he have the balls ? It would be very sad if the UK's only female Prime Minister proved to be more masculine than her supposedly far more virile successor. Boris has been far too anonymous so far and he needs to get himself more in the public eye. Of course, his advisors want to keep him away from anything vaguely bad news, but he must be seen to be in control much more than he has been. 

Get out there, be honest and be seen to be in charge, otherwise it will be Prime Minister Starmer in 2024.

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