BREXIT TIME LIMIT SET ?

As the opponents of 'Brexit' line up, one Michel Barnier has put in his pennyworth today.

Barnier has been appointed to lead the UK's exit negotiations for the EU. Various reports have suggested that he's a bit of a 'tough nut' and will not make things easy for the UK. Today, he's had a go at putting some flesh on the bones of his strategy and, on the face of things, it doesn't make happy reading. The time available for negotiation will be short, a mere 18 months, he says, and 'cherry picking' won't be allowed. It's also been said that there will be no discussions about arrangements AFTER the UK leaves until after the end of the 'leave' negotiations.

Barnier reckons that the 2 year timeframe set out in Article 50 of the EU's constitution includes the time needed for any agreement to be ratified by the various organs of the Union as well as by the government of the UK; hence, he says, the UK will only have 18 months to agree a deal. What he seems to be forgetting is that there will be 2 parties to the negotiations and it won't only be the UK which has a limited time to reach agreement, it will be the EU too. Barnier's remarks seem to suggest that he sees the process as coming down to the EU making an offer which the UK will be obliged to accept due to lack of time - more fool him. The truth has to be that, if his timescale is to be met, both sides may have to compromise, but neither more so than the other.

The comments about 'cherry picking' are just window dressing. Thus far, the only people who have actually suggested that this is a real issue are representatives of the EU and some of those who continue to fight against 'Brexit', using this red herring as a frightener.

The final matter, that of what will happen after the UK leaves the Union, will only be an issue if intransigence triumphs. If EU leaders decide to be particularly difficult, this could become an issue, with nasty barriers suddenly erected in the way of trade and economic co-operation, migration, security, research and development and so on. While this could happen, only a bunch of idiots would actually let it, and the likelihood has to be that there will be agreements in place covering most areas at the time of the final divorce. The alternative would be for a catastrophic mess affecting major European industries producing cars, wine, cheese, clothes, shoes, companies involved in tourism and finance, institutions carrying out research and development and much, mush more. Quite simply, the consequences of being stupid are far too serious for anyone to be stupid, whatever bombastic rhetoric they may spout for public consumption..

Barnier has made a point that the EU is fully prepared for the forthcoming negotiations, implying that the UK is not. In truth, neither side is really ready as neither side expected the situation to arise. It is new ground and both sides are equally at sea. They have no choice but to be sensible and reasonable and making noises about rigid time limits does not help.