What a few days we've had since the EU Referendum on 23rd June. The Prime Minister has announced that he'll resign once a new Parry leader has been chosen; the leader of the Labour Party is under siege and could well be forced to resign, while his party is in total disarray; Boris Johnson, long seen as a Prime Minister in waiting, has been torpedoed in spectacular style; stock markets in Britain and around the world have suffered huge daily movements and the pound has fallen dramatically. Added to all of this, the reactions from various European political leaders and bureaucrats have ranged from welcoming the result to sheer hatred.
Within the UK, there have been suggestions that we might go down a path previously trodden by the EU of finding a way to hold another referendum in order to get what the ruling class sees as the 'Right Result', that is, a vote to remain in the EU. Different bases for such a move have been suggested, all of which would be not just undemocratic but positively anti-democratic, denying the views expressed by the majority of the people.
Scottish politicians, with the exception of the Conservatives, have talked about Scotland's place in the EU as if it is an independent country, ignoring that its membership of the Union is only as a part of the United Kingdom. The prospect of a second 'Independence Referendum' seems to be now in the offing, though the current economic situation may make that an unlikely event in the immediate future or, even, in the medium term.
The United Kingdom is a deeply divided nation. Scotland, or left wing Scottish politicians and supporters, wants to separate itself from England, a country that it hates with a vengeance; indeed, Scotland was a traditional enemy of England in the past, often allying itself with that other traditional enemy, France. It seems that Scotland wants to stay in the EU, though its political leaders appear to totally ignore the reality of their situation; quite simply, in order for Scotland to be a member of the EU it would have to make an application to join as an independent country and accept the Euro as its currency. Such an application could take years to negotiate and would be dependent on a referendum vote to leave the UK. Will that ever happen ?
As well as Scotland, Northern Ireland also voted to remain within the EU as did the London region of England. Thankfully, neither the Northern Irish nor the people of London have yet suggested that they should divorce themselves from the rest of the UK and seek to stay in the EU, however, the differing attitudes of people in these regions from those of the rest of England and Wales are concerning. While Northern Ireland is something of a special case, London and its surrounds have become increasingly isolated from the rest of England in recent years. Property prices, wages, and the increasing centralisation of government and other major institutions have all served to turn large parts of south east England into what is almost a separate country. Many of those who live in and around London have become ridiculously wealthy, mainly due to the inflated house prices, and can choose to move anywhere in the country; those who live elsewhere can only dream of ever being able to move to London. This is an unhealthy divide that has generated very different outlooks on the world.
What will happen in the coming weeks, months and years no one knows. However, there will be a new Prime Minister, and probably a new leader of the Labour Party, within the next few months. The pound will probably recover some of its lost ground once a new Prime Minister is in office and the stock market, having lost 10% and then regained 15% over the course of a week, will probably remain rather turbulent for some time. Scottish politicians will continue to be noisy but probably won't be able to do much for at least a few more years, and the UK will invoke 'Article 50' around the end of this year or early in next. Formal exit negotiations will be much more amicable than anyone currently believes as its in no one's interests to be overly difficult; nonetheless, there'll be a lot of loud rhetoric, mostly from within the EU. The UK will formally leave the European Union in 2019.
By 2020, and following our exit from the EU, the UK will be prospering. By then, also, one or 2 other countries may have taken, or be actively considering taking, the same path as the UK and the EU will be in terminal decline. The 2020 UK general election will see the emergence of a new left of centre party, replacing the current Labour Party which will have fallen apart; that election will see a massive Conservative majority returned to Parliament, with the left wing vote split and, quite possibly, the Liberal Democrats making something of a recovery. By 2025 we'll know for sure that leaving the EU was the right thing to do and the 'younger generation' who were so keen to 'Remain' will be strangely silent about the whole referendum. The EU itself will be suffering from major infighting and on the point of total collapse.
Am I right or wrong ? Only time will tell.
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