HAMMOND & LAGARDE : DOOM MONGERS BOTH.

It seems that the big guns really are doing their best to derail Brexit.

Today, Chancellor of the Exchequer has ignored Prime Minister May's stated opinion about Brexit and predicted that a 'No Deal' scenario would bring gloom and misery to the UK's economy, echoing a similar message from Christine Lagarde, managing Director of the International Monetary Fund. 

Of course, both Hammond and Lagarde have been firm opponents of Brexit, of any sort, since Day 1; both have issued similar dire warnings repeatedly over the last 2 years and more. Hammond, like his partner in crime, Mark Carney, has stuck rigidly to a script which forecasts nothing but disaster for the UK in the event of there being no deal, while making no concessions to the views of Brexiteers. Lagarde is a former finance minister of France, a committed Europhile and one who has become totally inured to the workings of highly bureaucratic and centralised organisations such as the European Union. 

Both Hammond and Lagarde can see nothing but good in the EU, and nothing but bad in Brexit. It is in their blood, in every fibre of their being, to oppose Brexit in every possible way. We must not let them win the argument.

EU WILL SUFFER FROM DISORDERLY BREXIT.

It seems that the reality of Brexit is finally beginning to hit home; both the EU and IMF have started  to understand that there will be serious consequences for the remaining European Union members if there is no satisfactory resolution to the Brexit negotiations.

While the EU's leaders have begun to panic about the potential effect of a disorderly Brexit, the IMF has attempted to quantify the possible impact. According to them, European economies could suffer an average 1.5 % reduction in GDP, although the Irish Republic could lose out to the extent of 4%. Even accepting that the IMF's history on such prognostications is poor, this is a new element in the Brexit saga.

Until now, little has been said about the potential effect of Brexit on other European economies and the emphasis has been heavily on the supposedly catastrophic impact on the economy of the UK - 'Project Fear' in full flow. Now it seems that 'Project Fear' has begun to spread to Germany, France, and the rest, especially Ireland; maybe now there will be a new realism from the EU negotiators and a withdrawal from their previous intransigent positions.

The UK has always been in a much stronger position than has been generally admitted - might that strength finally be becoming apparent ?

BREXIT & TRUMP : OPPORTUNITY ABOUNDS !

Another of the world's 'economics experts' has had a go at talking down the UK's prospects following the decision to leave the European Union.

This one Christine Lagarde of the International Monetary Fund, has at least a couple of reasons for adopting this posture. Firstly, she used to be the French Finance Minister and is a committed Europhile; secondly, wearing her hat as 'head of the IMF', she was one of those 'experts' who predicted instant catastrophe for the UK if it dared to vote to leave the EU.

Now, having seen her predictions washed down the plughole, she's still at it. There is "still likely to be pain ahead"; the Brexit process "would be complicated"; uncertainty over the terms of the deal "is always a risk". It is noticeable that Lagarde's latest reading of the tea leaves is rather less specific than her predictions of 7 or 8 months ago, though she's still pretty negative.

Why is it that people like her refuse to see anything positive in the situation ? Whatever happens, they seem to be interested only in looking for the downside, much as the anti-Trump faction is currently doing. The more I see this, the more I want to rub their noses in it. Their cosy little world, in which they're the 'top dogs' and enjoy vast power, wealth and celebrity, is under threat from the rest of us who've had enough of being patronised and ignored.

Instead of being negative, these people should be looking for the opportunities that might flow both from Brexit and a Trump Presidency. One phrase has it 'There are no problems, only opportunities'; someone should tell Lagarde, Carney and the rest of the self-serving doom-mongers.

CHRISTINE LAGARDE : POLITICAL CRIMINAL.

Yesterday, a French court found that the former Finance Minister, Christine Lagarde, had been negligent with regard to a small matter of €404m (£340m) paid to a French businessman, Bernard Tapie, in 2008. Despite the decision, the court also decided that this negligence warranted no penalty and Ms Lagarde will have no criminal record.

Today, the Board of the International Monetary Fund, of which Ms Lagarde is now Managing Director, considered the outcome of the case but also decided that it had no bearing on her position with them and expressed its continuing confidence in her.

How on earth can it be that someone can be so negligent and yet escape both punishment and censure ? How can it be that someone who has been found guilty of such gross financial negligence can retain the confidence of an organisation which manages not millions but many hundreds of billions of pounds, dollars, euros and the rest ?

This is a classic case of the political world being very different from that inhabited by the rest of us. A cashier negligent over £400 would probably lose their job; a financial accountant negligent over £4,000 could well be suspended from their Institute; a finance director negligent over £40,000 might well go to prison. However, a Finance Minister and international financier, negligent over €400m receives no punishment and retains her position as head of one of the world's most important financial institutions.

How is this right ?

EU REFERENDUM : LAGARDE HAS HER TURN.

Following Mark Carney's comments yesterday, today it's been the turn of another Europhile mate of Cameron and Osborne to tell us how terrible a vote to leave the EU would be. Christine Lagarde, hardly an impartial commentator though head of the International Monetary Fund, has stuck her neck out at the behest of the 'Remain' campaign and done her best to support it.

However, as with Carney's statements, Lagarde has qualified her remarks with 'could', saying that Brexit "could lead to technical recession". She was rather more definite than Carney and did say that a vote to leave would have "pretty bad to very, very bad consequences" but, in reality, all she's actually done is to reiterate the now rather tired mantra of the 'Remain' campaign. Flanked by her pal, Europhile George Osborne, she added that she had "not seen anything that's positive" about Brexit which, in political speak, actually means that she's avoided looking at anything which doesn't support her own view of things. Exactly like Carney's comments of yesterday, Lagarde has apparently made a damning critique of Brexit while also covering her back in the event of her being wrong.

Those campaigning for a 'Leave' vote have immediately made the obvious riposte that the IMF has been wrong before and it's wrong now. In truth, the IMF's record of forecasting has frequently been wrong, sometimes woefully so, and it has been wrong in most of its recent forecasts regarding the UK's economy. Nonetheless, it seems that Lagarde will have yet another go at frightening the UK electorate just before the referendum and will no doubt make similarly sounding, but in truth highly guarded, remarks.

The question remains about the appropriateness of organisations such as the IMF and other foreign dignitaries and officials interfering in what is an internal matter for the UK. In the case of Mme. Lagarde, her own nationality, past history and impartiality must all be added to the mix. For UK voters, her views must be seen as highly suspect and they should not be deterred. VOTE LEAVE.