MAY SELLS US OUT; JOHNSON & DAVIS STAND FIRM.

It seems that Brexit is finally coming to a crunch point. Following Theresa May's watered down proposals which were 'agreed' by the Cabinet on Friday, first David Davis and now Boris Johnson have signalled their disapproval of the plan by resigning from their positions as Brexit Secretary and Foreign Secretary respectively. What now ?

Mrs May has reportedly said that she did not agree with the two ex-ministers about "the best way to honour the result of the 2016 vote" which seems to me to be a complete surrender to both the European Union's negotiating position and also to those here who want the UK to remain as closely tied to the EU as possible, if not actually remaining inside it. There is only one way to "honour" the vote and that is to do what it asked, that is, to take the UK out of the EU, Customs' Union, Single Market and all of the other nonsense that goes with it.

Some time  ago, Mrs May told us that "Brexit means Brexit" and she promised that we would be leaving the Customs' Union and Single Market, and the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice as well as bringing an end to the free movement of people across the EU. Now it appears that she is effectively proposing to keep the UK in the Customs' Union, to keep us fully aligned with all EU rules and regulations and to offer European citizens preferential rights of migration. All of this of course means that the ECJ would also continue to be the ultimate arbiter of our compliance with EU diktats although we would have no say in the formulation of such rulings.

On television yesterday, Michael Gove attempted to dance on the head of a pin, saying that the UK parliament would, nonetheless, have the final word regarding any EU rulings, and trying to make out that this was perfectly normal in trade deals. Although he claimed that his acceptance of, and support for, the Prime Minister's proposal was a result of him being a realist, it was clear that it was nothing more than a sell out of the people who, like him, voted to leave the EU. Gove was positioning himself as a reasonable alternative to Theresa May in the event that any of his other Cabinet colleagues decided to be more forthright in their opposition. While supporting Mrs May's proposal, he did not renege on his Brexit credentials and could now easily be seen as a Prime Minister in waiting by both sides of the Conservative party.

Theresa May has let the country down badly. She has failed to carry out her own promises from 2016 and 2017 and has failed to conduct any effective negotiation, refusing to issue any threats, veiled or otherwise, to the EU and refusing to use the UK's bargaining power on money, trade, defence and much more. Rather than tell the EU what she will accept, she has bent over backwards to accommodate its every whim and has, frankly, been pathetic. What we now have to wait to see is whether the resignations of Johnson and Davis are anything more than just acts of petulance. Will there now be a leadership challenge and a far harder attitude from the Conservative Brexiteers in Parliament ?

Only time will tell though we're unlikely to have to wait long to find out.

BREXIT 'DEAL' NOTHING BUT BELGIAN FUDGE.

Is Teresa May a saint or sinner ? It's hard to tell from the assorted stories now emerging about the supposed 'deal' reached between the UK and EU last week.

In truth, it seems likely that the 'deal' was little more than a political fudge, capable of being interpreted according to the prejudices of the reader. Agreement over the Irish border question, a problem which would almost certainly be on a par with the 19th century's 'Schleswig-Holstein Question' in its incomprehensibility, is absolute according to Irish politicians but not according to the UK's Brexit minister, David Davis. The UK has agreed to cough up something like £37bn according to some but more or less according to others; the rights of EU citizens living in the UK, and UK citizens living in the EU have been protected or are still open to debate even though some nebulous nonsense has been agreed. As has been said by some, 'Nothing is agreed until all is agreed', so what is really going on ?

Both the UK and EU were actually desperate for an apparent agreement on Phase 1 of the Brexit negotiations to enable progress to Phase 2, the all-important trade negotiations. Consequently, both sides had an interest in being able to present some sort, indeed any sort, of deal last week and the fudge was the best that could be found (keep in mind that the Belgians do make excellent fudge !). Whatever the rhetoric spouted by the representatives of either side, the only thing that really matters to the makers of German, French and Italian cars, French, Italian, Spanish and German wines, French cheeses, Italian and Greek olive oil and lots more, plus the owners of hotels across the continent, the Spanish, Italian and Greek holiday industries and the purveyors of vast quantities of meat and vegetable produce across the continent, is a trade agreement that avoids disruption and potentially catastrophic effects on their livelihoods.

The UK has an enormous trade deficit with the EU, that is the UK buys much more from EU member countries than it sells to them. Ergo, the EU has a huge vested interest in maintaining a good trade relationship with the UK though it also wants to discourage other states from thinking of having their own exit plans - Grexit, Spexit, Frexit are simply out of the question. Therefore, the EU's negotiators have been making all manner of unfriendly noises towards the UK while secretly knowing that the UK has a much stronger hand than is publicly stated; perversely, the UK's government appears to have also followed this line, "Why ?" is a major question that no one seems willing to address.

 

The good news is that talks will now move on to trade, the bad news is that progress is likely to be every bit as tortuous as before, with much huffing and puffing, much rhetoric and little substance until, that is, we reach the point at which a deal must be done for fear of there being no deal; that, of course, is a scenario that the EU dreads above all else. The UK simply needs to hold its nerve and it will get the deal it wants. The question is whether it has the stomach for the fight.

Ding-Ding : Seconds Out, Round 2 !

Btw, the 'Schleswig-Holstein Question' was about the complex relationship between 2 European duchies to the governments of Denmark and Germany. The one-time British Prime Minister, Lord Palmerston, was reported to have commented : "The Schleswig-Holstein question is so complicated, only three men in Europe have ever understood it. One was Prince Albert, who is dead, The second was a  German professor who became mad. I am the third and I have forgotten all about it" 

BREXIT : REMAINERS STILL KEEP PLUGGING AWAY.

There is much feigned amazement amongst some in the anti-Brexit community today after David Davis, the 'Brexit Secretary' told a House of Commons committee, chaired by Labour's Hilary Benn, that the government had not carried out any specific assessments of the impacts associated with the UK's exit from the European Union. While this has been made to sound calamitous, the truth is surely rather different.

The fact of the UK's departure from the EU is not in dispute. That exit automatically means that the UK will leave the EU's Customs' Union and Single Market; the trading and other arrangements that will be put in place after Brexit have yet to be agreed. What possible benefit could there be from committing resources to assessing impacts that are as yet utterly unquantifiable and are, in any case, irrelevant ?

Given this situation, carrying out many highly detailed impact assessments would be a pointless exercise, wasting valuable time and expertise that could be utilised far more profitably elsewhere or on other issues. Those who are so keen on assessments being carried out are die-hard 'Remainers', people who seem to think that they can still prevent any real Brexit from happening by keeping the UK inside of the Customs' Union and Single Market; their pseudo-horrified reaction to David Davis' comments is aimed wholly at this. They are simply trying to put the Government in a bad light and to raise issues that sound of huge importance but are, in reality, entirely specious. Others, such as Labour's Keir Starmer, use every opportunity to denigrate the UK and its negotiators while saying nothing about the intransigence and sheer bloody-mindedness of those in the EU.

Instead of getting behind the clearly expressed will of the people, these individuals are continuing to put as many obstacles in the way of the government as they can and to, effectively, 'talk Britain down'. They should be ashamed of themselves.

EU ISSUES ULTIMATUM : UK SHOULD REPLY IN LIKE MANNER.

Michel Barnier, one of the European Unions gaggle of bureaucrats involved in Brexit negotiations, has said that the UK has two weeks in which to clarify key issues or make concessions if progress is to be made in the talks. Rather more reasonably, David Davis, the UK's chief negotiator, has said that it's time for both sides "to work to find solutions"

While Barnier threatens, Davis attempts to conciliate; the difference in approach is stark. The EU is attempting to blackmail the UK into handing over piles of cash and accepting whatever it demands in relation to issues such as citizens' rights and the Irish border before it will agree to talk about a post-Brexit trade agreement.

Surely it is clear to everyone that the EU has no interest in having fair-minded discussions, what it wants is its own way and the total surrender of the UK to its demands. The UK should stand up for itself and tell Mr Barnier and his pals where to go.

Despite the way in which most of the media portrays things, that is, that the EU holds all of the cards, the UK holds the most powerful card of all; it can walk away and pay nothing more into the EU's bottomless money pit. Mr Davis should make it very clear to his opposite number that this option is now very much to the fore and will be actioned unless the EU adopts a more realistic and reasonable approach. There is no chance that countries such as Germany, France, Italy, Spain and others would suddenly refuse to trade with the UK or to impose massive tariffs on its goods; quite simply, our trade is too valuable to them.

If Barnier wants to threaten us, we should react in kind and give the EU two weeks to start genuine negotiations, otherwise, we will leave without a deal. See how he likes that.

BARNIER FIDDLES WHILE THE EU BURNS.

Once again, the UK's position in its 'Brexit' negotiations seems to be seen very differently on the 2 sides of the English Channel, or should I call it La Manche ?

In their session-end news conference, David Davis was, as usual, positive and forward looking. The EU's man, the dull and lugubrious Michel Barnier, said little that could be interpreted as positive and, instead, concentrated on making things seem terribly difficult, which appears to be the EU's overall stance.

One of the major bones of contention remains the position of EU citizens living in the UK after the UK goes its own way. The EU continues to demand that such people should be subject to EU law rather than UK law, a position which is utterly absurd. Where else in the world do those living in one country have their legal rights and obligations governed by the laws of another ? I've seen no mention of it, but does the EU also expect British citizens living in Spain, France, Germany or any of the other EU member states to be subject to UK law rather than that of the EU ? I somehow doubt it.

It is abundantly clear that the EU is simply using this idiotic argument, as well as the nonsense about the border arrangements between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic, as a way of delaying progress in an attempt to put pressure on the UK to agree an excessive financial settlement. One wonders how many billions of pounds it would take to get the EU to drop these stupid demands.

Our representatives need to have the courage of their convictions. Many observers and business interests keep talking about uncertainty being the biggest concern in this 'Brexit' process, so let's resolve that uncertainty by simply walking away from the talks. The UK is leaving the EU in March 2019 and these discussion are an unnecessary nicety. The EU needs our money and trade and our position is far stronger than the media suggests; there is no reason why the UK cannot, at the very least, set a deadline for agreement to be reached and, if it is not, walk away.

TIME TO TELL THE EU TO **** OFF !

As the UK's 'Brexit' negotiations back underway, it seems clear that the European Union's representatives are determined to be as awkward as possible.

Consistent with his previous pronouncements, Jean-Claude Juncker, a true 'giant' of Luxembourg politics before his elevation to become president of the European Commission, has been making loud noises about the need to settle the 'divorce bill' before any trade negotiations can begin. He's also been complaining that none of the papers and proposals provided so far by the UK are 'satisfactory', presumably meaning that they don't meet what the EU wants; does he not understand that the EU can no more get everything it wants than can the UK ?

Much continues to be said about EU citizens continuing to have all of the same rights while living in the UK after 'Brexit' as they have now, and for these rights to be legislated by the European Court; what a ludicrous idea. It is akin to saying that British citizens living in the various former British colonies should have remained subject to UK law when those countries obtained their independence, which would have been utterly ridiculous. No country can have some of its populace governed by one set of laws and some by another; this is no different to the idiotic notions that some have about instituting Sharia Law for sections of our society and it is equally unacceptable.

Juncker and his overpaid Europhile pals insist that the UK must be realistic and start negotiating seriously. In reality it is he, and they, who need to wake up. If I was David Davis I'd be making it very clear to Juncker and his cronies that I have no fears about walking away from the negotiating table empty-handed and with no agreement at all. The EU would be billions of euros worse off, both immediately and annually thereafter, and would be thrown into such chaotic turmoil that the mess it's already in would seem like perfect organisation.

Come on, Mr Davis, grow some balls. Tell these jumped up bureaucrats a few home truths and if they don't like it, who cares ?

BREXIT A CALAMITY, SAYS PR MAN.

Someone called James Chapman has been in the news recently, making noises about Brexit being a calamity and various political figures of both left and right being interested in forming a new party. It seems that he's been 'tweeting' prolifically and giving assorted interviews to anyone who'll listen. Such mouthings from a largely unknown personage would probably have been ignored except for the fact that Mr Chapman was on the staff of David Davis, the Conservative Brexit Secretary, until June this year.

The media has leapt on Mr Chapman's remarks as if they're of real moment. Sadly, the same media has said little if anything about Mr Chapman's history or current occupation.

Before taking on his role with David Davis, Chapman was a 'PR' man and spin doctor for that arch-Europhile, George Osborne, apparently being a committed 'Remainer' himself; why he ever took a job with an arch-Eurosceptic such as Davis raises questions. Now, after only a few months in post with Mr Davis, he has taken on a lucrative job with a PR company, Bell Pottinger, in the City of London, specifically to cater for clients with political axes to grind.

He took up his new role on 26th June and one has difficulty believing that his outbursts in the last 2 or 3 days are anything but moves on his part to promote the Europhile views of certain customers of his new employer; for all we know, he may even be dancing to the tune of his former master, George Osborne, again.

It's hard to conclude that this man is anything more than a mouthpiece for whomever happens to be paying his wages at any particular time and his 'twitterings' should be treated with the contempt that all such PR outpourings deserve.