JUNCKER & CO. BLINK !

How remarkable !

It's reported today that Jean-Claude Juncker, one of the multitude of bureaucrats who gorge themselves at the European Union's bounteous table, has said that the chance of agreeing a 'Brexit' deal has increased in the last few days. In fact, Juncker is now so confident that he's saying if a deal isn't agreed this month, it is quite likely that it will be by the end of November. With the UK set to leave the egregious organisation on 29th March next year, that has to be good news.

Only a few short weeks ago, EU representatives sent Theresa May packing with a significant flea in her ear after being told that her 'Chequers' Deal' wasn't a runner. May responded with a television appearance, in which she was clearly angry, and made her own position abundantly clear. What couldn't be denied was that someone had to blink. 

It was subsequently suggested that Mrs May was convinced that it would be the EU that blinked first and it appears that she was right. Fearing the consequences of an uncontrolled 'Brexit', the EU's leaders have suddenly begun to talk more positively; although they're also continuing to make occasional noises about preparations for a 'No Deal' scenario this seems to have been put on the 'back burner'.

As the deadline for a deal approaches, and November is about as late as it can get due to the need for 28 governments to agree the terms (including our own), the true horror of a possible 'No Deal' outcome has finally come to the fore; at last, the EU's negotiators are starting to realise that the UK is less frightened of this than are they. Consequently, it's going to be 'all hands to the pumps' over the next few weeks as a deal is concluded.

Of course, no one should expect that this will be the end of it. It's more than likely that any deal, whenever it comes, will be a fudge that leaves various difficult issues, notably the Irish border question, unresolved though with some sort of temporary fix in place. Most importantly, trade will continue, the 'planes will fly and life will go on.

Whoopee !?

'BREXIT IN NAME ONLY' IS NOW FIRM FAVOURITE.

With Labour Party policy currently set to oppose any likely deal, or no deal, that the government makes with the European Union, things seem set for an interesting few weeks.

Should Labour vote against whatever the government comes up with, the fate of the government will rest with the Conservatives who have already said they will not vote for the 'Chequers' Deal' and those who are implacably opposed to even the notion of no deal..

Either way, it seems that the government will be in trouble. If whatever is proposed is voted down, what will then happen ? Mrs May can hardly go back to the EU with a begging bowl, and she has already ruled out any thought of extending the March 29th deadline for leaving. Her only remaining option seems to be to make Brexit a matter of confidence.

It hardly seems likely that Conservative MPs would then vote against the government as this would almost certainly trigger a general election which Labour could well win. So Mrs May, and the country,would end up with whatever she agrees with the EU, however poor that is.

'Brexit in Name Only' is surely an odds-on favourite.