PROJECT FEAR REARS ITS UGLY HEAD AGAIN.

And here we go again !

Today, both the UK Treasury and Bank of England have produced some new figures and predictions about the potential effects of Brexit. SURPRISE, SURPRISE ! Both august bodies have said that the UK will suffer potentially severe economic consequences from Brexit OVER THE NEXT 15 YEARS !

When, if ever, has either the Treasury or Bank of England got forecasts for the next couple of years right, let alone over a period of 15 years. Before the referendum of 2016 both organisations made dire predictions should the population be stupid enough to vote to leave the European Union - the pound would collapse, the stock market would tumble, house prices would crash, inflation and interest rates would soar, etc. etc. Which of these was proved right ? NONE !

Now, the Bank is repeating its warnings of 2 years ago - why should they be any more right today than they were in 2016 ? In arriving at their predictions, both the Bank and the Treasury have made various assumptions but how can they possibly make any valid assumptions about the world 15 years from now ? How, indeed, can they make any valid assumptions about the world 3 or 4 years from now ?

With political uncertainty rife across Europe and in the US, with China increasingly challenging the economic domination of the West and Russia ploughing its own furrow of militaristic posturing, we cannot, with any certainty, even know what the world will be like in 2019, let alone in 2034. The one thing that is very clear is that 'Project Fear' remains in full swing and that the people of the UK are being readied for either another referendum or a general election, which those of the liberal elite who run things expect to result in a reversal of the decision taken in 2016. 

Don't let the men, and women, in grey suits who appear to be so knowledgeable and certain, fool you. They have one aim in mind and they will do and say anything to achieve it. They want the UK to be a good little servile nation, do as it's told and decide to stay in the EU. 

Don't let it happen.

MARK CARNEY - TOO POLITICAL BY HALF.

Given that he's meant to be an apolitical figure, Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England and a pal of former Chancellor of the Exchequer and arch Europhile Gideon "George" Osborne, seems to be making a lot of politically sensitive comments.

At every opportunity, Carney appears to be spreading the gloomiest possible prognostications about the outcome of Brexit. Ignoring that the Bank's financial forecasts seem to be changed every few weeks, Carney has recently told us all that Brexit has already cost every family in the country £900 and will cost unspecified further sums; added to this, he's also made suggestions that it may lead to the Bank having to create even more 'funny money' and also keeping interest rates at historic lows in order to 'shore up' the economy. Rather more quietly, he has acknowledged that a successful outcome to the Brexit negotiations could be highly beneficial to the economy, although this has not received the same publicity as his other comments and he doesn't seem to have produced any forecasts around such an outcome.

Carney and his ilk have always been opposed to Brexit and are continuing to do whatever they can to sow doubt and even fear in the minds of the people who voted for it. His statements about the economy and the potential effects of Brexit are not in the way of being 'real' but are based on the various forecasts which the Bank and others make on a regular basis; how these organisations distinguish between the potential effects of Brexit, a US - China trade war, problems in the Middle East, the situation between the US and North Korea and many other international issues escapes me. In fact, there are so many matters which could be affecting our economy that to attribute specific outcomes to specific events is nonsensical.

Economic forecasting is fundamentally impossible to get right and the frequent changes to the forecasts issued by the Bank of England, Treasury, IMF, OECD, IFS and many others demonstrates what a waste of time the whole process is. The truth is that economic forecasting is simply a tool used by politicians and their acolytes to promote and support their own policies and points of view; to use an old adage "there are as many economic viewpoints as there are economists".

As Governor of the Bank of England, Carney has every right, even a duty, to communicate his views to the Government but his public pronouncements have been highly political and well beyond anything which any of his predecessors would have considered. It can only be a good thing that he will be leaving his post in June 2019; it's a shame it won't be sooner.