Friday 17 May 2019

MAY ON HER BIKE - WHO WILL REPLACE HER ?

As the saga of Theresa May drags on interminably, the contenders to succeed her as Prime Minister are mounting in number. The trouble is that none of them is very inspiring.

Boris Johnson is the charismatic choice of many but his flamboyant and frankly often oafish approach renders him problematic. Michael Gove seems to be trying to look like a loyal Party man but surely his vicious attack on Boris at the last such leadership contest has cooked his goose. 

Liam Fox has maintained his position as a committed Brexiteer but has also stayed on in the Cabinet and supported Mrs May whenever it's been necessary. He's a previous failure as a leadership contender so why would he win now ? 

Sajid Javid is desperate to be Prime Minister, which may well scupper his chances. He stood on a joint ticket with Stephen Crabb in the 2016 leadership campaign although the campaign fell at the first hurdle. He does tick lots of boxes for some, but his time in office has not been without it's issues. Rows over Anti-Semitism, Islamophobia, knife crime, immigration and citizenship have all blown up, with Javid seemingly looking to do whatever he thought would get him the most plaudits. Ultimately, his obvious desire for the job, added to this list of high profile problems, my be his undoing.

Jeremy Hunt is, perhaps, the smoothest operator of them all and has kept his head down for the most part, avoiding saying too much about anything. However, he's a Remainer, so would need support from a strong Brexiteer if he's to be in with a real chance. The suspicion otherwise would be that it would be simply Theresa may in a suit and tie leading us to nowhere in particular.

Dominic Raab might be in with a shout, but where's he vanished to in recent weeks ? Since his resignation from the pointless job of Secretary of State for Brexit, he seems to have dropped out of sight - has this been a clever ploy or is he just not that significant a player ? Being fairly unknown might help him although being too quiet might not. He'd certainly need a Remainer or 2 on board in any leadership campaign.

Will Philip Hammond be a candidate ? A committed Remainer, he's been a gloomy and uninspiring Chancellor of the Exchequer, issuing a string of negative comments about the probable effects of Brexit. Along with Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, Hammond has been almost 100% wrong and must be a long shot to convince Brexiteers that he's the man for the top job. 

Andrea Leadsom may well have done for her chances with her ill thought out remarks about motherhood when she was a challenger last time around. As with Michael Gove, she may well have shot herself in the foot though as a strong Brexiteer, perhaps she could be the number 2 on Jeremy Hunt's ticket.

Penny Mordaunt has risen to near the top of the tree for no really discernible reason. She has a history of self-promotion, using Parliament for her own purposes in a speech in 2013 and appearing as a contestant on a television reality show "Splash" in 2014. In 2015, she was identified as being one the very highest claimants for expenses amongst Parliamentarians, and in 2016 she demonstrated a lack of understanding about the workings of the European Union. While she appears to be an unlikely candidate herself, she is a Brexiteer and might, possibly, be another who could be on the Jeremy Hunt ticket.

Amber Rudd is clearly ambitious for the top job but is a fervent Remainer. She is from a highly privileged background  and exudes an appearance of entitlement, rather in the manner of David Cameron and George Osborne. She also has a brother who is a strong supporter of the Labour Party. While she could be the number 2 supporting a Brexiteer candidate, her own chances look remote.

Liz Truss also wants the job but does she inspire the necessary level of confidence ? She seems to me to be someone who says whatever she thinks is necessary with no concern for what it means; she's also one who seems to be frequently unsure of her brief and stumbles over her words. For me, she's a no-hoper.

Esther McVey seems to have the brains and is a committed Brexiteer. She hasn't jumped up and down or made a mockery of herself, as have some, but has maintained a fairly quiet and controlled determination. In contrast to Truss, McVey is a good performer under questioning and generally seems to know her stuff. Her resignation from the Cabinet over Theresa May's proposed Brexit deal certainly won't harm her chances. She's another who could certainly be a number 2 to Jeremy Hunt though perhaps her own chances are better than some might credit.

Which of these offerings could anyone really see representing this country with any strength at the international level ? Boris would probably be the "Peoples' Choice", but does he have support in Parliament ? Perhaps a joint candidature with Amber Rudd might work, but  …….. . Of the rest, only Jeremy Hunt strikes me as being "Prime Ministerial" and, perhaps an eventual joint campaign with Dominic Raab or Esther McVey might succeed.

However the cake is cut, they're an uninspiring bunch. Of course, there are other potential contenders and the eventual winner might appear from some previously unconsidered dark corner of the Party. What is certain is that whoever comes on top has an almighty job to do. They have to reunite the Conservative Party, bring Brexit about as quickly as possible - deal, no-deal, whatever - and stave off the threats from both Nigel Farage's Brexit Party and the Marxist extremism of Jeremy Corbyn's mob. After that, it will be all about keeping the United Kingdom together in the face of more calls for Scottish independence, and winning the next general election. 

Why would anyone actually want the job ??

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