Sunday 15 April 2018

MAY v CORBYN - WHO'S WINNING NOW ?

Nine months ago, few gave Theresa May any chance of surviving as Prime Minister for more than a few months at most. Jeremy Corbyn, having brought the Labour party close to winning June's general election, was seen as Prime Minister in waiting. What a difference 9 months can make.

Today, Theresa May is still in office and seems to have regained control of her party, as well as having made significant progress in negotiations with European bureaucrats over the arrangements to be put in place after the UK leaves the European Union. Additionally, she has now shown herself to be a strong an determined leader in her reaction to the appalling use of a nerve agent in Salisbury and has made the decision to send British armed forces into action against the barbaric regime in Syria. Mrs May now seems secure in her role for at least the next 2 to 3 years, with there being little sight of any realistic challengers from within her party.

Conversely, Jeremy Corbyn has had an increasingly difficult time. There's been all manner of infighting within his party as he has attempted to remove all of his opponents and replace them with his likeminded supporters, in a style reminiscent of the dictatorships of Russia, China, North Korea and those other left wing dictatorships of which Corbyn is such an admirer. He's been mired in accusations of anti-Semitism, both personally and within his party, and has failed so far to quell these. While Mrs May has appeared Prime Ministerial, Corbyn has prevaricated and procrastinated over the attempted murder in Salisbury and has been less than supportive of government actions both in relation to this case and in the matter of the recent attacks on Syrian chemical weapons facilities, preferring to waffle about the need to have a dialogue with Russia as if this hasn't already been tried and failed.

At this stage in a parliament, it would be expected that the main opposition party would be well ahead and the Prime Minister would have falling support, but it's not like that today. While opinion polls continue to show the Conservative and Labour parties too close to separate, Mrs May's personal ratings are rising, Corbyn's are falling; Mrs May has grown into her roll while Corbyn has surrounded himself with inexperienced, likeminded acolytes who have failed to make any real mark. Labour's 'big hitters' have almost all migrated to the back benches, distancing themselves from a leader whom they see as being extremist and unrealistic.

There will be local elections taking place on 3rd May and it will be interesting to see how the parties fare in these. Anything less than significant gains for Labour will be a failure for them and the pressure on Corbyn will mount. His popularity may already have peaked and it may well be downhill all the way from here.

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